559
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
633 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (30-50%) across southeast Kansas into southwest
  Missouri on Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Many
  locations remain dry across the area.

- Higher rain chances (50-80%) return late Thursday night
  through Friday. Low potential for heavy rainfall.

- Additional rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Through Tonight: A shortwave and an associated system are
sliding south and west of the area this afternoon. This spawned
a few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms across southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri earlier today. This activity has
since dissipated with most of the area remaining dry. Mid to
high level clouds continue to linger across the area through the
evening. Highs top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, though
dewpoints in the middle 50s have been a relief from the late
Spring humidity. For tonight, clouds dissipate across most of
the area with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Wednesday: Mid-level ridging begins to breakdown across the
Plains into Wednesday, allowing shortwave energy to translate
into the area. While moisture return is rather weak into
Wednesday, some of the short term guidance is beginning to come
into agreement on chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms reaching into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri through the morning into the afternoon. Given that
there is not agreement across the board and some dry air in
place, will ride with 30-50% PoPs in this area on Wednesday. If
additional hi- res guidance come into agreement over the next
12 hours, higher rain chances may need to be introduced. Areas
further north and east across the area should remain dry through
Wednesday with a bit cooler highs in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Thursday-Friday: By Thursday, an upper level trough settles into
the Northern Plains, allowing quasi-zonal flow with embedded
shortwaves to setup across the central CONUS. This will support
the return of southerly advection into the region. Guidance
depicts PWATs around 1.3 to 1.5 inches advecting into the area
in the vicinity of stationary boundary draped across the
western half. Expect rain chances to increase late Thursday
night into Friday, with PoPs highest (60-80%) west of Highway
65. Further east, PoPs a bit lower around 30-50% through Friday
afternoon. By late Friday, an associated trough and low lift
east spreading rain chances further east into south central
Missouri. There remains a few differences among the ensemble
guidance on the timing and how the mesoscale features unfold.
Nonetheless, the stage is set for potentially heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding. There remains a Marginal (1 of 4)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook over the area on Friday. Efficient
rainfall rates will be prevalent, and any areas that see
repeated thunderstorms over the same areas may be susceptible
to flash flooding. Many area waterways are running above normal
flow following active weather over the last 1 to 2 weeks in
addition to saturated soils. NBM 4.2 Probabilities of 48 hour
QPF (Thursday evening through Friday morning) showing the
following:

>0.5 inch: 50-70% along/west of I-49; 30-50% east towards
Highway 65
>1.0 inches: 30-50% along/west of I-49; 10-30% east
towards Highway 65

For those mentoring the forecast over the last few days, this
has trended lower from previous forecasts. Thus, confidence
still remains low on exact rainfall amounts at this time with
this first system late Thursday through Friday. Any severe
chances remain low given the lack of adequate
instability/shear. Highs remain in the middle to upper 70s
through Friday.

Saturday-Monday: The upper-level flow remains active into the
weekend with additional rain chances (20-40%) lingering across
the region. Highs remain around normal for late May in the upper
70s to lower 80s. CPC and additional long term guidance hint at
the active weather (above normal precipitation) continuing
through at least early June,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist through
much or all of this TAF period. However, there is a 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus