Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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975 FXUS63 KSGF 251120 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 620 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight to Moderate Risk (level 2 to 4) for severe storms late tonight into Sunday morning. Damaging winds to 75 mph and hail to two inches in diameter are the primary potential severe weather hazards. There is also a conditional risk for a few tornadoes. - Slight to enhanced risk (level 2 to 3) for severe storms again Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail the primary potential severe weather hazards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a strong upper low over northern Minnesota and another deepening upper trough along the west coast. 850mb analysis shows a frontal boundary over southern Missouri and fairly weak wind fields over the area. Surface analysis shows the cold front just about to push southeast out of the area with remaining convection just ahead of the front in our far southeast CWA. Surface high pressure was movingn into the area and has dropped dew points into the 50s to low 60s behind the front. Temperatures were ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. Rest of the overnight and Saturday: Surface high pressure will continue to shift east across the area and moisture will then begin to creep back north into the area during the day Saturday over the western CWA initially. A dry line will set up over central KS into central/western OK during the afternoon in association with a surface low developing in the high plains. Shortwave energy will begin moving into the plains during the day. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the dryline during the afternoon into the evening hours in KS/OK. Saturday night: Significant severe weather (level 4 of 5) will likely begin to develop Saturday evening initially to our west as the low level jet(55-60kts) really begins to ramp up during the mid to late evening. Helicity values really increase significantly during this time to support a significant tornado risk to our west. These initial supercells should evolve into a thunderstorm complex with a squall line as it moves into our area during the overnight hours. Significant damaging winds will be the main risk with wind gusts over 75 mph possible. This feature should track east across the CWA during the overnight hours. Some HREF members are showing some rather impressive updraft helicity values across the area during the overnight and some embedded tornadoes can`t be ruled out as the squall line pushes through the CWA. Sunday: The surface low and associated surface front will push through on Sunday afternoon and early evening. If enough atmospheric recovery from the morning MCS can take place, then additional convection will be possible with the frontal passage. With recovery, there should be plenty of instability with the front for some additional strong to severe storms during the afternoon into evening hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Upper level wave will push through on Sunday night with a drier air mass moving into the area. This should clear the convection to the southeast of the area with temperatures dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s. An upper low in Canada will drop southeast into the Great Lakes region early in the week bringing more of a northwesterly flow aloft to the area. The best moisture axis should remain over the deep south into the southern plains with precipitation chances fairly low for the first half of the work week. An upper level ridge will begin to push into the area on Thursday with moisture beginning to increase over the western CWA by late in the week. Temperatures in the long term period look to remain seasonal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 For the 12z TAFS, much of the day and evening should remain in VFR conditions with high pressure over the area. Severe storms are expected to develop further west in the plains late this afternoon and evening, and then track east into the area after midnight. Will see some MVFR/IFR with any convection that develops overnight. Gusty winds are expected to develop late tonight ahead of the approaching system with gusts up to 25 kts. Severe damaging winds will be possible with any squall line that may develop, although timing and coverage is too far out to pinpoint at this time. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg