233
FXUS63 KSGF 032032
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are ongoing across the area. Main threats are
  frequent lightning, quarter sized hail or smaller, wind gusts
  between 50-60 mph, and nuisance flooding. Storms are expected
  to diminish around 8pm.

- Widespread 60-90% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night.
  Marginal risk for severe storms with a few storms producing
  damaging winds and hail. Slight risk for excessive rainfall
  which may again lead to localized flooding.

- Warm and muggy conditions through midweek. Drier conditions
  Wednesday through Friday. Pattern chance for the weekend may
  bring slightly cooler temps to the area. Low confidence in
  rain potential for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

This Evening: A cluster of thunderstorms is pushing northeast
through south-central MO. They formed off of an outflow boundary
from the MCS that is currently pushing through OK/AR. There is an
axis of instability roughly along and east of HWY 65. As storms
continue to follow the instability, they will continue to pulse up
and become strong/marginally severe with frequent lightning, quarter
sized hail or smaller, wind gusts between 50-60 mph, and
nuisance flooding. There have already been a couple of flood
advisories issued this afternoon as some of these storms have
dropped a quick 1- 2 inches of rain. PWAT values are between
1.3-1.5 inches today, therefore, these storms will be efficient
rainfall producers. They can drop a good amount of rain in a
short amount of time, while also reducing visibilities.

Tonight: Rain is expected to taper off around 5-8pm this evening for
most of the area. Then, tonight around midnight, another round of
thunderstorms will move through the area. A second MCS will form
over SE KS/NE OK tonight as a mid-level shortwave moves through the
area. Again, these storms are expected to be strong/marginally
severe with frequent lightning, quarter sized hail or smaller, wind
gusts between 50-60 mph, and nuisance flooding. The MCS is
forecast to be out of the area by late Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tuesday: Once the MCS exits the area, rain will slowly taper off.
There could be some lingering showers on the backside of the MCS, as
a few models are showing. Therefore, have kept 30-40% POPs through
the afternoon. Though, they may need to be adjusted after assessing
the speed/movement of the MCS. If the atmosphere is overworked,
those POPs will need to be lowered to match the stable
atmosphere. By Tuesday night, a surface cold front will move
through the area and could perhaps bring yet another MCS through
the area into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday: The upper level trough will continue
moving east into the Great Lakes region with a secondary front
moving into the area. This will reinforce a slightly drier
airmass as northwest flow aloft develops and sticks around
through the rest of the week. Highs will be a bit cooler in the
lower 80s.

The Weekend: Upper level ridging returns this weekend. While
the area will be susceptible to disturbances moving down the
flow into the area, pinpointing these is difficult at this time.
Given that ensemble clusters are not in agreement, NBM pops
around 30 percent this weekend seems prudent at this juncture.
This will also have an impact on temps. NBM high temp spreads
are around 10 degrees however the trend/signal is for near to
slightly below average range (upper 70s to around 80).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into the area
this afternoon, of which the main threats are lightning, gusty
winds, and small hail. These storms will last into the late
afternoon before ceilings improve. Another round of scattered
thunderstorms is possible late tonight into the early morning,
with severe wind gusts and hail as the biggest threats. Any
areas which see storms may experience MVFR visibilities this
afternoon and tonight, with VFR conditions elsewhere. Winds will
remain consistently southerly.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria