Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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139 FXUS63 KSGF 232245 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 545 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening over southeast KS/far southwest MO ahead of strong to severe storms overnight. - After a morning lull, strong to severe storms are again possible over the eastern portions of the forecast area. - Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Short range forecast remains generally on track though timing has slowed with the system lifting into the Dakotas and associated trailing cold front advecting across the Plains. Through tonight - a warm front has progressed northward through the forecast area with a cap limiting convection from developing. With the shift of winds to the south, dew points have climbed into the middle 60s to near 70...with even more moisture streaming into the system as evident by the stratus on satellite. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the highly unstable and sheared environment across the Plains this afternoon into this evening...though questions on cold pool development advancing the arrival time of thunderstorms overnight vs storms moving well ahead of the line and losing their organization. CAM model soundings in agreement that MLCAPES above 3000 J/KG will be in place over southeast KS this evening though some disagreement on whether the cap will break until forcing from the approaching outflow arrives so there may be a few scattered thunderstorms from evening into the night before the main band of strong to severe storms arrives over southeast Kansas into western Missouri toward sunrise. This band of storms will likely weaken and then strengthen once once again increase in coverage and strengthen Friday afternoon over the eastern half of the forecast as the front works its way east across the forecast area. While uncapped, the atmosphere ahead of the convection will loose some of its instability thanks to warming mid level lapse rates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Southwesterly flow will resume as the western trough digs then advects eastward into the Plains Saturday. Progged soundings reveal an uncapped, highly unstable atmosphere. The veering profile lacks strong lower level winds at the present, though anticipate winds to strengthen as the surface low deepens rapidly over Kansas. Similar to the system tonight...the nocturnal elements may lead to severe threats diminishing and then redeveloping farther east on Sunday. Of concern with the Saturday night/Sunday system will be increasing precipital water leading to the potential for very heavy rainfall rates falling on moist soils from recent storms. A trailing shortwave will be monitored for the potential for showers Monday...otherwise the Holiday through midweek will be mild with highs in the 70s to near 80 and drier dew points. Dry weather will then prevail into midweek as a welcome surface high builds across the central US. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through tonight and into early Friday. A line of thunderstorms will move into during the day on Friday, especially late morning and afternoon and may need to include prevailing groups in future updates. A period of MVFR ceilings looks to arrive by morning as well. Winds will begin to turn southwesterly by Friday afternoon with a switch to the northwest at the very end of the TAF period. Low level wind shear is likely tonight at JLN. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Burchfield