Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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617 FXUS63 KSGF 241642 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1142 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms move into the area this morning. Some may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday into the evening ahead of the front. - Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper level low over the Dakotas starting to pivot and become negatively tilted. Some embedded shortwave energy was aiding in the development of convection to our south along the Red River valley. A thunderstorm complex has developed in the plains ahead of a surface cold front. This activity was shifting eastward across north central KS and much of central NE early this morning. A few cells have developed in the warm sector ahead of this over northern Missouri. Most of the CWA remains cloud free at this hour. The warm front shifted from southern Missouri 24 hours ago into southern Iowa early this morning. Dew points in the warm sector were in the upper 60s to low 70s with surface temperatures still in the low to mid 70s. Rest of tonight: Forward propagating Corfidi vectors suggest a continued eastward movement of the thunderstorm complex overnight which would keep things north of the area overnight. The cold front/dry line will shift eastward during the remainder of the overnight hours and into eastern KS by 12z. May see some scattered convection develop over our far western CWA by 12z, but most locations should remain dry during the rest of the overnight hours. Today: Scattered morning convection will be possible as the cold front / dry line move into the CWA this morning by 18z. Coverage will probably be mostly scattered through the mid morning hours and should be mostly elevated with a fairly strong thermal cap in place in the warm sector. Instability will build up ahead of the front though and will be the focus for increasing storm coverage this afternoon and evening. Most of the area will be in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon with the main risks being large hail and damaging wind. An isolated tornado risk will also be possible. By late evening, a cooler and drier air mass will have pushed into most of the CWA with the convection shifting out of the area with the front. The remainder of the night should be dry with temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Saturday: The surface high will shift east of the area on Saturday and moisture will be quick to return to the area during the day. Most of the daytime hours should remain dry though despite strong instability developing over the area as the main forcing will still be off to the west. Highs will return to the low to mid 80s over the area and dew points will also rise back into the mid to upper 60s across much of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Saturday night into Sunday: By late Saturday afternoon, convection will start to develop to our west ahead of a dryline/cold front in the plains and upper divergence aloft in advance of the next shortwave. Thunderstorm chances will start in the west during the evening with the approach of the frontal system and then spread east across the area during the overnight into Sunday as the front moves through the forecast area. All modes of severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and large hail the main severe weather risks. Monday-Tuesday: An upper level low will push across the upper Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes region with a northwesterly flow developing over the area in the wake of this weekends system. Drier air should move into the area with generally dry conditions and temperatures near normal for this time of year in the upper 70s to low 80s. Wednesday - Thursday: Moisture will begin to creep back to the north in the middle to later part of next week and we`ll probably see increased rain chances by the later part of the week. Temperatures should remain close to normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front will continue to slowly move southeast across southern Missouri this afternoon and this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front, a few of which could be severe. High resolution weather models indicate that the greatest probabilities for storms will be for the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. MVFR and brief IFR conditions will be present with storms along with gusty and erratic winds. Large hail will also occur with some storms. The thunderstorm threat is expected to diminish by 03Z. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds this afternoon will shift to the northwest behind the front this evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Schaumann