Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
106 FXUS66 KSGX 300353 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 853 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Minor day to day changes in the weather are expected through the weekend into next week. High pressure will lift northward through Friday and bring warmer temperatures and less wind to inland areas. A weak trough will move over the area for the weekend, bringing temperatures down slightly with a deeper marine layer and breezier winds for mountains and deserts. A ridge of high pressure is expected to strenghten over the West next week, leading to gradual warming and continued dry weather for our region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Update... The 00z Miramar sounding showed a 5C degree inversion based near 1500 feet, about 400 feet lower than the 12z sounding earlier this morning. Clouds won`t spread quite as far inland overnight as onshore flow weakens and a ridge begins to build over the Pacific Northwest. Highs on Thursday will generally be 2-5 degrees warmer than today and highs will actually be slightly above normal, with the greatest departure from normal in the lower deserts. Similar conditions are expected for Friday. Previous Discussion (Issued 110 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024)... A ridge of high pressure in Mexico will drift further north, where heights will rise through Friday. This will provide some warming for inland areas with less low cloud coverage for the Inland Empire by Friday morning. By Friday, temperatures will climb to around 4-8 degrees above average for inland areas. Per latest NBM, there exists a 50-60% chance of seeing temperatures over 105 degrees for Palm Springs and Borrego Springs, and a 40-55% chance of seeing highs reach 90 degrees for eastern portions of the Inland Empire. Stay safe in the heat, especially for our desert locations, where there is a moderate risk of heat related impacts. A weakening shortwave will move ashore over the Pacific Northwest this weekend, subtly lowering pressure heights. West winds will become breezy each afternoon for the mountain desert slopes into the deserts with gusts near 25-40 MPH, along with slightly cooler temperatures lower near 5 degrees or so overall. Next week will warm up once again. Ensemble model clusters still vary on where the ridge sets up, but confidence is increasing that this ridge is expected to build across the Great Basin through the week. This will bring near closer to the coast with above average temperatures inland for many across our region, along with a shallower marine layer with sunnier skies west of the mountains and less wind for inland regions. && .AVIATION... 300320Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 1400-2000 FT MSL are developing across the coast and will push inland after 05z Thu, reaching western portions of the Inland Empire after 08z Thu. Slightly lower bases of 900-1400 FT MSL possible overnight. Cigs possible vcty KONT 12-15z Thu. Scatter out 15z-17z Thu across inland areas and 17z-20z Thu at the coast. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis through Thu. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...EA/APR AVIATION/MARINE...EA