152
FXUS64 KSHV 271715
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1215 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For this updated, decided to add slight chance to low chance POPs
for a large portion of the region south of the Interstate 20
corridor. This was based on recent runs of short-term progs, which
continue to suggest some isolated convection will develop along a
weak cool front currently moving across the region. Also, based on
current forecasted temperature and humidity trends, decided to add
our Central Louisiana parishes and Shelby County Texas to the
current Heat Advisory. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures
to remain across the area today, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

/20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Convergence ahead of an approaching frontal boundary within an
airmass rich in moisture has maintained potentially severe convection
through the early morning hours. With convection moving out of
the ongoing Tornado Watch 329 area at this time, went ahead and
cancelled the watch slightly early with no need to reissue
downstream.

Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing
lower dewpoints areawide. However, portions of Deep East Texas may
not experience the benefits of the drier air before the time of
peak heating when temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s. The
combination of hot temperatures and high relative humidity values
will result in heat index values around 105 degrees across the
lakes region of Deep East Texas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has
been issued for these areas. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle
90s.

A weak mid-level disturbance translating east across the region
may allow for a few stray showers and thunderstorms across mainly
northeast Texas this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise,
mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid
60s across the lower 70s.

Upper-level across Mexico to allow for northwest flow across the
region on Tuesday. A disturbance translating southeast within the
overall flow regime will allow for a round of convection on
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid
80s to lower 90s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through the long-term period as
a series of mesoscale features influence ongoing episodes of
scattered convection each day. From Wednesday through late-week
the main focus for convection will be a lingering latitudinal
oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast that will
eventually lift north as a warm front during the weekend.
Convection along the boundary will be driven by mesoscale
disturbances within the upper-flow pattern. To cover convective
uncertainty through the long-term period, went with an overall
broad-brush approach of periodic scattered pops through the
period. Additionally, within a northwest flow pattern this time of
year, it is possible for some strong storms to develop during
higher pop episodes at times of greatest diurnal heating and
instability.

Temperatures through the long-term period to range from highs in
the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For the 27/12Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs will continue through
27/16Z. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected under light winds
as frontal passage continues across the area. Quiet weather will
remain across the airspace for most of the period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  90  70 /  20  10  30  30
MLU  95  70  92  69 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  92  65  86  65 /  10  10  20  30
TXK  94  69  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
ELD  94  67  89  65 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  94  72  89  69 /  30  20  40  40
GGG  94  71  89  69 /  30  20  30  40
LFK  94  74  92  72 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017-018-020-022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16