Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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293 FXUS64 KSHV 280610 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 110 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 With convection to our west invof the DFW metroplex on the downward trend over the past hour, will allow Severe T`Storm Watch 336 over the handful of counties in East TX to expire on schedule at 10 PM. Otherwise, still cannot completely rule out a stray shower or storm along the weak frontal boundary slowly advancing south of I-20. In terms of temperatures, the current forecast appears on track with a range of overnight lows expected in the mid and upper 60s north to lower and mid 70s south. Therefore, no additional changes are needed at this time. Updated text products have already been sent. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A short-wave trough and associated weak cool front will continue to push across the region today. Despite that, temperatures will still remain well above normal, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s. However, the front could spark off a few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours for our zones along and south of the Interstate corridor. At this time, not expecting anything severe, but can`t rule out some brief heavy downpours and strong gusty winds. Behind this trough, the upper level pattern will transition to more of a northwesterly flow tonight. There could be a few isolated showers/t-storms that develop across North TX tonight along the Red River that may try to sneak into McCurtain County and extreme NE Texas during the late evening hours and just after midnight along the flow, before diminishing. Northwesterly flow should help bring in some slightly cooler temps and dewpoints to the region, but it will also keep rain chances across the area. Short-term progs continue to suggest a potent disturbance will kick off some showers and thunderstorms near daybreak tomorrow across the Red River valley of North TX and Southern OK. These storms are expected to form into a complex and push south along the NW Flow into the region during the late morning hours. Can`t rule out some strong to severe winds with this complex, along with some hail. Additional disturbances could move through the flow Tuesday afternoon/evening, resulting in additional convection across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Long-term progs are suggesting an active NW Flow pattern to continue through the remainder of the work week and through the upcoming weekend, bringing more disturbances and unsettled weather across the region. It will be a challenge to pinpoint the timing on the activity, as it will depend on when each disturbance moves through. Also, additional storms could develop along residual boundaries with daytime heating. With periods of rain, we will need to monitor area waterways for flooding. The good news, is that the rain and cloud cover should keep temps near or just below normal. However, there is some hint that upper ridging could develop across the Southern Plains by next weekend, which could result in drier weather and hot temps returning. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 For the 28/06 TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the period (with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs exceptions for low clouds over east Texas terminals). Light easterly winds will also continue through the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 71 82 69 / 30 40 50 30 MLU 93 69 82 67 / 10 20 40 30 DEQ 85 64 80 64 / 30 30 50 30 TXK 88 67 82 67 / 30 30 50 30 ELD 90 65 79 64 / 20 30 50 30 TYR 88 69 83 69 / 50 40 60 30 GGG 89 69 82 68 / 40 40 50 30 LFK 92 72 84 70 / 40 30 60 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...16