934
FXUS64 KSHV 281825
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
125 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Gotta love northwest flow season in the ArkLaTex. To say it`s been
an active day severe thunderstorm wise is an understatement at we
are finally beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel so to
speak with the rain coming to an end across our far northwest
zones. Still dealing with severe convection across our far
southern zones but the best instability by far resides just to our
south and thus Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371 will be allowed to
expire without any additional extension necessary at 2 pm.
For the remainder of the night, already seeing new convection
developing across NW and NC OK attm and this combined with renewed
convection expected across the Upper Red Basin of NW TX and SW OK
promises to head our way late tonight. Not saying late night and
early Wednesday Morning upstream convection will be as intense and
expansive as what we witnessed this morning as the low level jet
which ofter feeds these nocturnal convective systems does not
appear to be as stout as what we saw this morning but an increase
in storm coverage and intensity is forecast just upstream of our
region late tonight and expect this to move into our far northwest
zones after midnight towards daybreak on Wednesday.

Remnant upper forcing should combine with daytime heating on
Wednesday to support scattered to numerous storm coverage once
again with storms on Wednesday likely dissipating Wed Night from
west to east.

Undercut temps tonight and shaved NBM temps on Wed given the
forecast storm coverage.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

While the upper ridge across the Intermountain west does begin to
move out into the Great Plains late Wed thru Thursday, the upper
flow pattern remains fairly chaotic as disturbances will continue
to move our way from the Upper and Middle Red River Valley. With
plentiful moisture in place not to mention daytime heating not to
mention nocturnal energy generated by an always active late May
low level jet, these are the perfect ingredients for daytime and
nighttime convection so kept pops at least in the high scattered
variety most areas through at least Saturday.

Beyond Sat, the medium range progs are split on just how active
our pattern will be for Sunday and into early next week. Did back
off pops slightly Sunday thru Tue, given this was the NBM trend
but needless to say, we are stuck in a milder but very wet pattern
through at least Saturday of this week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

An active pattern is ongoing across the airspace this morning as
multiple MCS arrangements move east. This has impacted much of
the east Texas terminals with +TSRA conditions, while a mix of
SHRA and VCTS extend north and east across the Louisiana and
Arkansas terminals.

Given the meso focused environment of the dual MCS presentation,
following the passing of the second complex close to 18z,
guidance, cross section analysis, and regional satellite imagery
do point towards some scattering of the area clouds and even the
chance for brief SKC for some terminals. This has been noticed
west of the DFW metro, and if the complex can continue to remain
progressive, some clearing, even if brief, appears in the cards.
That being said, due to lack of confidence in forecast solutions
up to this point, have elected to keep some cloud debris locally
across the terminals this evening and overnight, ahead of a
return to some BKN conditions by mid morning. AMD`s will be issued
if changes are needed.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  85  70  85 /  30  70  50  50
MLU  69  85  67  84 /  30  70  60  50
DEQ  64  78  63  79 /  30  70  50  40
TXK  67  82  66  82 /  30  70  50  40
ELD  65  83  63  81 /  30  70  50  40
TYR  69  84  70  84 /  50  70  40  50
GGG  68  83  69  83 /  50  70  50  50
LFK  70  85  69  85 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53