192
FXUS64 KSHV 261735
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1235 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The early morning convection over NE TX has completely diminished
as of mid-morning, although a considerable elevated cigs remain
over SW AR/N LA, with additional elevated cigs from ongoing dying
convection over Cntrl TX continuing to spread E across Deep E TX
and N LA. This complex did leave behind a theta-e bndry
indicative of the cooler and much drier air from near and N of
the DFW Metroplex into the Mid Red River Valley, with a steep
gradient noted in the sfc theta-e fields just NW of the region. In
addition, brief wind gusts to 35-40+ kts were observed in wake of
the dying convection near and shortly after 12Z across portions
of extreme NE TX/Srn AR, with winds having diminished somewhat in
their wake. However, given the steep pressure gradient in place
ahead of a sfc low centered near PNC as of 15Z, the onset of
mixing will result in gusty SSW winds through the afternoon over
the Wrn half of the region, where a Wind Advisory is in place.

The elevated cigs are expected to continue diminishing/thinning
from W to E through the afternoon given the dying convection to
our SW, and thus, strong insolation and the warming SSw winds will
result in max temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s this
afternoon. Unfortunately, it doesn`t appear dewpoints will mix out
well again at all, with the higher dewpoints noted over lower E
TX eventually mixing back N over NE TX where some slightly drier
air was able to mix E from the early morning convection. Will not
be making any changes with the existing Heat Advisory in place,
although confidence is lower that criteria will be reached over
portions of NE TX N of I-20 than areas farther S. Have also
removed pops this morning and keeping a dry forecast through the
afternoon given the capping that should persist as well as the
lack of deep lyr moisture. However, the advance of a weak
shortwave trough noted on the morning water vapor imagery over W
and NW TX should help reinforce the dryline E this afternoon into
Ern OK and portions of NCntrl/extreme NE TX, which may be enough
to initiate isolated convection by early evening over portions of
NE TX.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

For the 26/18Z TAFs, nearly areawide VFR will prevail this
afternoon as departing mid and high level clouds give way to
clearing skies from the north and west. Conditions will
deteriorate from the west this evening, impacting primarily
northwestern portions of the ArkLaTex as a new area of storms
develops, most likely bringing impacts to KTXK and KELD. Winds
from the south southwest will remain gusty this afternoon at
sustained speeds possibly exceeding 15 kts with gusts of up to 25
kts possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  72  93 /  10   0  10  10
MLU  74  95  69  92 /  30   0  10  10
DEQ  67  92  63  88 /  30   0  10  10
TXK  72  94  68  91 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  71  94  66  91 /  40   0  10  10
TYR  74  94  72  92 /  10   0  10  20
GGG  74  94  72  92 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  76  96  73  94 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26