Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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572 FXUS64 KSHV 272016 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 316 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A short-wave trough and associated weak cool front will continue to push across the region today. Despite that, temperatures will still remain well above normal, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s. However, the front could spark off a few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours for our zones along and south of the Interstate corridor. At this time, not expecting anything severe, but can`t rule out some brief heavy downpours and strong gusty winds. Behind this trough, the upper level pattern will transition to more of a northwesterly flow tonight. There could be a few isolated showers/t-storms that develop across North TX tonight along the Red River that may try to sneak into McCurtain County and extreme NE Texas during the late evening hours and just after midnight along the flow, before diminishing. Northwesterly flow should help bring in some slightly cooler temps and dewpoints to the region, but it will also keep rain chances across the area. Short-term progs continue to suggest a potent disturbance will kick off some showers and thunderstorms near daybreak tomorrow across the Red River valley of North TX and Southern OK. These storms are expected to form into a complex and push south along the NW Flow into the region during the late morning hours. Can`t rule out some strong to severe winds with this complex, along with some hail. Additional disturbances could move through the flow Tuesday afternoon/evening, resulting in additional convection across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Long-term progs are suggesting an active NW Flow pattern to continue through the remainder of the work week and through the upcoming weekend, bringing more disturbances and unsettled weather across the region. It will be a challenge to pinpoint the timing on the activity, as it will depend on when each disturbance moves through. Also, additional storms could develop along residual boundaries with daytime heating. With periods of rain, we will need to monitor area waterways for flooding. The good news, is that the rain and cloud cover should keep temps near or just below normal. However, there is some hint that upper ridging could develop across the Southern Plains by next weekend, which could result in drier weather and hot temps returning. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 For the 27/18z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some lower CIGs moving across deep east Texas that has brought some IFR to LIFR conditions for KLFK. Aside from that, seeing fairly widespread VFR to MVFR flight conditions due to some HZ and BR. CIGs should improve this afternoon some for all areas, returning to more widespread VFR conditions. We will see some return of lower ceilings during the overnight hours for some of our east Texas terminals. Aside from that, we have some low end chances of precipitation return to portions of the area by the end of the period. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 92 71 81 / 20 30 30 50 MLU 70 93 69 80 / 10 20 10 40 DEQ 64 86 64 80 / 20 30 30 50 TXK 68 90 67 81 / 10 30 30 50 ELD 66 90 65 78 / 10 20 20 40 TYR 71 90 69 82 / 30 40 40 50 GGG 71 90 69 81 / 30 40 40 50 LFK 73 93 72 84 / 30 30 30 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017-018-020-022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-153- 165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...33