Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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152 FXUS64 KSHV 271730 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 For this updated, decided to add slight chance to low chance POPs for a large portion of the region south of the Interstate 20 corridor. This was based on recent runs of short-term progs, which continue to suggest some isolated convection will develop along a weak cool front currently moving across the region. Also, based on current forecasted temperature and humidity trends, decided to add our Central Louisiana parishes and Shelby County Texas to the current Heat Advisory. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to remain across the area today, with highs in the low to mid 90s. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Convergence ahead of an approaching frontal boundary within an airmass rich in moisture has maintained potentially severe convection through the early morning hours. With convection moving out of the ongoing Tornado Watch 329 area at this time, went ahead and cancelled the watch slightly early with no need to reissue downstream. Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing lower dewpoints areawide. However, portions of Deep East Texas may not experience the benefits of the drier air before the time of peak heating when temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s. The combination of hot temperatures and high relative humidity values will result in heat index values around 105 degrees across the lakes region of Deep East Texas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas. Otherwise, the remainder of the region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle 90s. A weak mid-level disturbance translating east across the region may allow for a few stray showers and thunderstorms across mainly northeast Texas this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the lower 70s. Upper-level across Mexico to allow for northwest flow across the region on Tuesday. A disturbance translating southeast within the overall flow regime will allow for a round of convection on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 An unsettled pattern will persist through the long-term period as a series of mesoscale features influence ongoing episodes of scattered convection each day. From Wednesday through late-week the main focus for convection will be a lingering latitudinal oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast that will eventually lift north as a warm front during the weekend. Convection along the boundary will be driven by mesoscale disturbances within the upper-flow pattern. To cover convective uncertainty through the long-term period, went with an overall broad-brush approach of periodic scattered pops through the period. Additionally, within a northwest flow pattern this time of year, it is possible for some strong storms to develop during higher pop episodes at times of greatest diurnal heating and instability. Temperatures through the long-term period to range from highs in the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees each day. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 For the 27/18z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some lower CIGs moving across deep east Texas that has brought some IFR to LIFR conditions for KLFK. Aside from that, seeing fairly widespread VFR to MVFR flight conditions due to some HZ and BR. CIGs should improve this afternoon some for all areas, returning to more widespread VFR conditions. We will see some return of lower ceilings during the overnight hours for some of our east Texas terminals. Aside from that, we have some low end chances of precipitation return to portions of the area by the end of the period. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 90 70 84 / 10 30 30 50 MLU 70 92 69 83 / 10 20 20 40 DEQ 65 86 65 80 / 10 20 30 40 TXK 69 89 67 81 / 10 30 30 40 ELD 67 89 65 80 / 10 20 30 40 TYR 72 89 69 83 / 20 40 40 50 GGG 71 89 69 83 / 20 30 40 50 LFK 74 92 72 86 / 20 30 30 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017-018-020-022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-153- 165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...33