Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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621 FXUS64 KSHV 270808 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Convergence ahead of an approaching frontal boundary within an airmass rich in moisture has maintained potentially severe convection through the early morning hours. With convection moving out of the ongoing Tornado Watch 329 area at this time, went ahead and cancelled the watch slightly early with no need to reissue downstream. Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing lower dewpoints areawide. However, portions of Deep East Texas may not experience the benefits of the drier air before the time of peak heating when temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s. The combination of hot temperatures and high relative humidity values will result in heat index values around 105 degrees across the lakes region of Deep East Texas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas. Otherwise, the remainder of the region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle 90s. A weak mid-level disturbance translating east across the region may allow for a few stray showers and thunderstorms across mainly northeast Texas this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the lower 70s. Upper-level across Mexico to allow for northwest flow across the region on Tuesday. A disturbance translating southeast within the overall flow regime will allow for a round of convection on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 An unsettled pattern will persist through the long-term period as a series of mesoscale features influence ongoing episodes of scattered convection each day. From Wednesday through late-week the main focus for convection will be a lingering latitudinally oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast that will eventually lift north as a warm front during the weekend. Convection along the boundary will be driven by mesoscale disturbances within the upper-flow pattern. To cover convective uncertainty through the long-term period, went with an overall broad-brush approach of periodic scattered pops through the period. Additionally, within a northwest flow pattern this time of year, it is possible for some strong storms to develop during higher pop episodes at times of greatest diurnal heating and instability. Temperatures through the long-term period to range from highs in the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees each day. /05/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 For the 27/06Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs will continue through 27/16Z before gradual improvement to VFR under light winds as frontal passage continues across the area. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 74 91 71 / 10 10 30 30 MLU 95 70 93 69 / 10 10 20 20 DEQ 93 64 87 64 / 0 10 30 40 TXK 94 69 89 67 / 0 10 30 40 ELD 93 67 90 65 / 0 10 20 20 TYR 95 73 90 69 / 10 10 40 40 GGG 95 71 90 69 / 10 10 30 40 LFK 96 75 93 72 / 20 20 30 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24