146
FXUS64 KSHV 241739
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for today to account
for overall trends. That being said, not too much has changed
with the inherited forecast for this afternoon. The SPC Day 1
outlook did change some with their morning update though. An
Enhanced Risk was added to portions of McCurtain County and a
sliver of Red River County for this afternoon. In addition, the
Slight Risk was expanded a little to the south in east Texas,
mainly impacting Cherokee County. Otherwise, the discussion below
remains valid.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Active weather will continue through the next 18-24 hours before
a lull returns across the Four State Region. This is due to
troughing along a meandering frontal boundary with weak shortwaves
in quasi-zonal flow aloft all acting to instigate rounds of
convection across the Southern Great Plains into the Ark-La-Tex.
High-resolution guidance/CAMs suggest the next round of convection
developing ahead of the frontal boundary as it shifts southward
across north-central Texas, with developing thunderstorms shifting
further southeast of the I-20 corridor after sunset Friday and
continuing overnight. Compressional heating (especially where
storms don`t form) will also keep temperature maximums/minimums
above average, reaching the upper 80s/low 90s and low-to-mid 70s,
respectively. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Somewhat of a respite from active weather will arrive across the
Four State Region going into next week. This is due to frontal
passage expected by early next week coinciding with generally
overrunning shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow transitioning to
northwesterly flow as ridging builds in further north across
Texas. This will not preclude parts of the area from just about
daily chances of afternoon convection, and about 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall according to the latest WPC QPF. Temperature
maximums/minimums will respond in-kind with upper 80s/upper 60s
lower 70s, respectively (and back to near normal for this time of
the year). /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Still dealing with some MVFR or low VFR ceilings across our
terminal airspace early this afternoon but those ceilings should
continue scattering out as we move into the late afternoon hours.
Continued the thinking of the 12z terminal forecast package of
introducing VCTS across our terminals from west to east this
evening with TEMPO groups for TSRA given the convection we are
expecting later this evening/overnight. Otherwise, look for
MVFR/IFR ceilings to return during the predawn hours with any IFR
ceilings becoming MVFR by mid-morning on Saturday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  74  93  76 /  10  30   0   0
MLU  92  71  92  74 /  10  20  10   0
DEQ  86  67  87  71 /  10  40  10  10
TXK  90  71  91  73 /  10  40  10  10
ELD  90  69  90  71 /  20  40  10   0
TYR  91  72  92  75 /  10  30   0   0
GGG  92  71  92  74 /  10  30   0   0
LFK  94  73  95  75 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05