668
FXUS64 KSHV 201957
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
257 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The northern edge of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue to keep our Four State region largely dry and
anomalously warm through the short term period. Expect building
and strengthening southerly low level flow to be bringing back
more moisture into the region from the south and southwest
starting late tonight and this will result in low clouds coming
back to at least west/southwest zones very late tonight through
the morning hours tomorrow. The combination of clouds and slightly
higher winds will keep low temperatures even warmer than was the
case this morning and at least coming close to tying some area
record high minimum temperatures is possible.

High temperatures tomorrow will be a little more regulated by a
bit more cloud cover, but we still anticipate max temperatures
ranging from 89 to 94 degrees with peak afternoon heat index
values getting near 100 degrees in spots. A quick moving
disturbance moving quickly through the Central Plains and Midwest
tomorrow to the north of the aforementioned ridge should kick off
potent thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front up to our
north later tomorrow. There is some chance that the tail end of
these storms could encroach into areas northwest of the I-30
corridor tomorrow night and a stray severe storm up there cannot
be totally ruled out tomorrow night. That said, a large majority
of our region should be dry through tomorrow night. Lows tomorrow
night will be even warmer with even more low clouds and slightly
increased southerly winds. This will put more climate sites in
jeopardy of setting record high minimum temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The main theme of the long range portion of the forecast will be
above normal temperatures, although there will also be decent
chances of storm (along with a risk of severe storms), especially
across the northern half of the region.

The cold front kicking off storms in the Central Plains and
Midwest tomorrow will be sagging closer to our the far NW portion
of the Four State region on Wednesday, with another fast moving
disturbance riding the northwest periphery of the southern states
high pressure ridge likely kicking up afternoon and evening
thunderstorms that should affect at least our northwestern zones.
The Storm Prediction Center has many of these areas outlined in a
Slight Risk for Wednesday afternoon into the night, with the main
risks with any severe storms being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Increased clouds and southerly winds should help limit
highs to the upper 80s and lower 90s, but the somewhat higher
humidity could still result in peak heat index values approaching,
if not hitting, the century mark.

The upper level ridge will be shunted a bit to the south on
Thursday as the perturbed westerlies aloft to the north of the
ridge push a bit south as well. The aforementioned front will be
weak at the surface and perhaps extending into our northern zones,
but confidence is higher that residual outflow boundaries will
provide triggers for convection in at least northern zones again
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Once again, the
combination of instability and wind shear is expected to be enough
to at least warrant a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (again,
mainly with a high wind and hail risk) in central and southern
zones.

Uncertainty increases in NWP guidance past Thursday, but there is
a loose consensus that the northern edge of the southern states
ridge will reassert itself again for Friday and through the
weekend. This will mean lower chances for showers and
thunderstorms these days, with the chances again more confined to
northern zones. Also, the heat and humidity will probably increase
further still and perhaps put more areas in jeopardy for tying or
breaking records for late May heat. A subtle pattern change toward
"northwest flow", greater thunderstorm threats, and slight cooler
temperatures still is a possibility for the start of next week,
but of course the uncertainty with regard to that shift is
relatively high given how far out we are talking in the forecast
cycle. /50/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

For the 20/12z TAFs...VFR with sct CU at all TAF sites. This
should prevail through the afternoon, with the CU diminishing
after 01z. Some high cigs will move into the region afterwards,
with low cigs moving in and reducing flight categories to
MVFR/IFR before daybreak tomorrow. These reduced flight categories
may hold on through the remainder of the TAF period at our East
Texas sites. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  93  78  91 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  69  91  73  89 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  66  89  72  87 /   0  10  10  50
TXK  70  91  76  91 /   0   0  10  30
ELD  68  91  73  89 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  71  90  76  90 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  70  90  75  90 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  70  92  75  90 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...20