332
FXUS64 KSHV 190552
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1252 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Surface and upper-level ridge across the region to maintain stable
conditions overnight. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are
forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. A stagnant airmass
characterized by light winds and subsidence aloft may lead to
unhealthy air quality conditions across urban areas along I-20 in
east Texas on Sunday. Therefore, an Ozone Action Day is in Effect
for Sunday. Otherwise, current forecast is on track. No update
needed at this time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A field of fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon will begin
to quickly dissipate around sunset this evening as high pressure
at the sfc continues to dominate. Similar to last night, winds
will be light and variable to near calm under mostly clear skies.
Likewise, this set-up will be conducive for patchy fog development
overnight with low temperatures ranging through the 60s to near
70 degrees.

Another warm day will follow on Sunday as light SE  flow returns
in the wake of advancing high pressure. Temperatures will likely
run a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to today with mostly
locations reaching into the lower 90s under a field of afternoon
cumulus once again. With a light SE breeze expected to persist
overnight, low temperatures will only fall back into the mid and
upper 60s to lower 70s.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The warming trend will continue through early next week with an
upper-level ridge building across much of the southern and eastern
CONUS. The ridge will help to deflect any convection to our north
through at least Tuesday as daily high temperatures push into the
lower to mid 90s across much of the region except for our extreme
northern zones which may remain in the upper 80s. Overnight lows
will also trend muggy and warmer as well due to the prevailing
southerly flow and increasing Gulf moisture through the first half
of the week.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will shift
farther east across the SE CONUS and Mid-Atlantic states. This
will allow for an upper-level trough shifting out of the Rockies
into the mid-section of the country to push a cold front southward
into our northern zones by mid to late week with increasing rain
chances during this timeframe. In fact, a shortwave advancing in
the SW flow pattern late Thursday into early Friday may provide
enough forcing for some strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening into early Friday morning as highlighted in
the SPC Day 6 convective outlook. We will continue to monitor this
possibility over the coming days, but at a minimum expect higher
rain chances for the middle to latter part of next week along with
slightly milder temperatures.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Wet soils combined with light and variable winds will result in
patchy fog and scattered instances of MVFR/IFR flight conditions
early in the period. Any fog that develops should mix out between
19/12z-19/14z. Beyond then, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
at all terminals for the rest of the period with a scattered cu
field likely during the daytime hours.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  66  90  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  70  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  70  90  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  90  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09