Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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481 FXUS64 KSJT 300002 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 702 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around 3000 J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection to fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and evening looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should be fairly short lived. Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County. Any storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging winds due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area. Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range. An upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location. Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early evening just after peak heating for areas further south. Storms should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty of support for development as they push eastward into our county warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave, areas most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho Valley northward. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 For Thursday night, there will be boundaries, stationary front/outflow boundary just northeast of the area and a dryline over the Permain Basin and Trans Pecos, for thunderstorms to fire off during the late afternoon hours. The Hi-Res models indicate isolated probably supercells firing along the dryline to our west and a few storms developing just to our north and moving into our area, and merging into a line of strong/severe storms mainly across the northern half of the area, moving southeast possibly making it to the I-10 corridor by late evening. The combination of strong/extreme instability and good vertical wind shear will result in some severe storms. The main hazards will large to very large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. Also, localized flooding is possible due to high PW values producing locally heavy rainfall. For Friday, an unsettled pattern will continue with weak upper level support, a cold front along the I-10 corridor and abundant moisture. Expect scattered thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening across the eastern half of the area. A few storms may be severe due to strong instability and some wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and localized flooding. For this weekend, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly across the northern and eastern areas. Can not rule out and isolated strong/severe storm mainly during the late afternoon and evening. The early part of next week looks mainly dry and warmer as an upper level high pressure ridge builds into the area. Highs will be in the 90s to around 102. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains (east of Fort Davis and Alpine, and just northwest of Marathon) early this evening. These storms may move as far east as the western part of Crockett County before dissipating prior to Midnight. These storms will not affect any of our TAF sites. Mostly clear skies tonight will give way to extensive low cloud development/expansion late tonight and early Thursday morning. Expect MVFR ceilings with the low clouds. The low cloud field should break up mid-to-late Thursday morning, with a VFR-based cumulus field expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected late Thursday afternoon across west and northwest Texas, and the storms (probably in the form of a Mesoscale Convective System) will likely affect a few of our TAF sites Thursday evening into Thursday night. This will be further assessed with subsequent model data. East to southeast winds early tonight will veer to the south overnight. Increased and somewhat gusty south or south-southeast winds are expected Thursday from midday through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 67 85 67 81 / 20 40 50 50 San Angelo 69 92 70 90 / 20 30 30 40 Junction 72 94 72 94 / 20 20 30 40 Brownwood 69 84 68 82 / 10 20 50 60 Sweetwater 67 87 67 82 / 20 40 40 50 Ozona 70 91 70 91 / 30 20 20 20 Brady 70 87 70 85 / 20 20 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...19