572
FXUS64 KSJT 250603
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Dryline has slid through much of the Concho Valley and Edwards
Plateau early this afternoon, while the cold front has made
through much of the Big Country. That leaves most of the Heartland
and Hill Country still in the moist and very unstable air mass
with CAPE value above 5000 J/kg once gain. Shear is again 45 to 50
knots, leaving an air mass very similar to what we saw on Thursday
afternoon. A few storms expected to develop and pretty rapidly
become severe across the Heartland and Hill Country, somewhere
along either the dryline of cold front. Very large hail and
damaging winds the primary concerns, but given these type of high
instability environments, an isolated tornado is also possible.

Front washes out and eventually retreats tonight, as well as the
dryline. Low level moisture returns on Saturday and air mass will
become unstable once again. Models have their differences on how
far east the dryline will mix on Saturday afternoon, but given the
soil moisture and evapotranspiration in place, will assume less
mixing east and a slower dryline than some of the models. Latest
CAMs show some convection developing across portions of the Big
Country and Concho Valley and then progressing east and
southeast. With that in mind gave added a mention of small POPs
farther west than we previously had. Any storm that does develop
will have the potential of reaching severe levels.

As for temperatures, downslope winds behind the dryline will push
temperatures to or above the 100 degree mark on saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, it will be not quite as hot but
much more muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

For Saturday early evening, expect a dryline to be located along
a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible east of the dryline during the early evening hours.
Due to extreme instability and good vertical wind shear, any storm
that does develop will rapidly become severe with main hazards
being very large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. The
best chance for severe weather will be across the eastern half of
the Big Country and northern Heartland where the Day 2 SPC
outlook has a slight risk. Any convection that does develop should
be east of our area after 03Z Sunday.

Otherwise, expect hot and dry weather this weekend as a low level
thermal ridge becomes established across our area. Highs will be
mainly in the upper 90s to around 105 Sunday and Monday. Please
follow heat safety precautions this weekend and early next week.
A cold front moves through much of our area by the middle of next
week with cooler weather, highs in the 80s to lower 90s by
Wednesday. However, lots of low level moisture around, so expect
humid conditions. The chance of rain will increase be Tuesday
through Thursday. The combination of a frontal boundary, upper
level disturbances moving by and PW values of 1.25 to 1.75 inches
will result in a few round of thunderstorms, possible MCS`s. Going
with low to medium chance Pops, but the Pops may increase as we
get closer. Also, a few severe storms are possible mainly
Wednesday and Thursday as we are in the peak of severe weather
season. Also, there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night due to the abundant
moisture. Still a few storms possible Friday, but mainly a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Stratus will develop once again across the southern terminals
after 10Z and linger through the morning hours before scattering
out to VFR. KBBD and KJCT may see some IFR ceilings as well and
have included a TEMPO group for a few hours this forecast cycle.
There is the potential for thunderstorms to develop across the
area late this afternoon, with the most favored area around the
KABI and KSJT terminals. For now, confidence remains too low to
include TS at this time due to coverage uncertainty. Any storms
that develop will likely be severe though. Expect light winds
through early morning, then south winds will gust 20 to 25 knots
after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  74  97  65 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo 102  73 101  63 /   0  10   0   0
Junction   104  74 104  66 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   94  72  96  63 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater 100  71  97  65 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       99  72  98  65 /   0  10   0   0
Brady       96  73  96  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...24