Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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299 FXUS64 KSJT 271926 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 452 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 It will be a hot Memorial Day across west central Texas. Highs will top out around 101-106 degrees across the western Concho Valley down into the northern Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the northern Big Country north of a weak frontal boundary. Otherwise, SPC has areas east of a Merkel to Ballinger to Sonora line in a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon. Upper level forcing will be fairly negligible and convergence along the dryline will be marginal. As a result CAMS only show a few storms developing mainly across our southeastern counties where the more favorable moisture will reside. Any storm that does develop will likely go severe due to CAPE values of greater than 3000 J/KG. Large hail would be the main hazard. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Storms are expected to merge into a large storm complex which will be move southeast through West Central Texas Tuesday evening. Nearly all of West Central Texas has been upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe storms by SPC day 2 outlook. GFS MUCAPES of 2500 to 4000 J/KG, with 0-6km shear of 40-50 KTS. Damaging winds of 80 mph or more may be possible in some storms...which is the greatest threat. Large hail also possible along with perhaps an isolated tornado. A moist unstable air will continue over West Central Texas into the weekend, with dew points remaining into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The best chance of storms each day will be in the Big Country. Potential for severe thunderstorms will continue, along with localized flooding. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s in the Big Country with 90s to the south through Friday, with 90s returning Saturday and Sunday, with perhaps 100 again in the Concho Valley Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Mainly VFR conditions with light southerly winds are expected for the rest of the day through tomorrow morning. An isolated storm or two will be possible late this afternoon or evening, but this was left out of the TAFs, except for Junction, due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 91 66 80 / 10 60 60 50 San Angelo 71 97 67 89 / 10 50 50 40 Junction 71 99 69 93 / 30 30 50 40 Brownwood 69 89 67 80 / 20 50 70 50 Sweetwater 71 94 66 80 / 10 60 50 40 Ozona 72 94 67 91 / 10 40 40 30 Brady 70 91 67 83 / 20 40 60 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...SK