787
FXUS64 KSJT 300003 CCA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San
Angelo TX 702 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward
through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around 3000
J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than
yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection to
fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and evening
looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should be fairly
short lived.

Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach
the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms
look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence
is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County.  Any
storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging winds
due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area.

Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly
surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central
Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range.  An
upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in
some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning
across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location.
Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early
evening just after peak heating for areas further south.  Storms
should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located
from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another
upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty
of support for development as they push eastward into our county
warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave, areas
most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho Valley
northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May
29 2024

For Thursday night, there will be boundaries, stationary
front/outflow boundary just northeast of the area and a dryline over
the Permain Basin and Trans Pecos, for thunderstorms to fire off
during the late afternoon hours. The Hi-Res models indicate isolated
probably supercells firing along the dryline to our west and a few
storms developing just to our north and moving into our area, and
merging into a line of strong/severe storms mainly across the
northern half of the area, moving southeast possibly making it to
the I-10 corridor by late evening. The combination of strong/extreme
instability and good vertical wind shear will result in some severe
storms. The main hazards will large to very large hail, damaging
winds and an isolated tornado possible. Also, localized flooding is
possible due to high PW values producing locally heavy rainfall.

For Friday, an unsettled pattern will continue with weak upper level
support, a cold front along the I-10 corridor and abundant moisture.
Expect scattered thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening across the eastern half of the area. A few storms may be
severe due to strong instability and some wind shear. The main
hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and localized flooding.
For this weekend, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
mainly across the northern and eastern areas. Can not rule out and
isolated strong/severe storm mainly during the late afternoon and
evening. The early part of next week looks mainly dry and warmer as
an upper level high pressure ridge builds into the area. Highs will
be in the 90s to around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the
Davis Mountains (east of Fort Davis and Alpine, and just northwest
of Marathon) early this evening. These storms may move as far east
as the western part of Crockett County before dissipating prior to
Midnight. These storms will not affect any of our TAF sites. Mostly
clear skies tonight will give way to extensive low cloud
development/expansion late tonight and early Thursday morning.
Expect MVFR ceilings with the low clouds. The low cloud field should
break up mid-to-late Thursday morning, with a VFR-based cumulus
field expected in the afternoon. Thunderstorm development is
expected late Thursday afternoon across west and northwest Texas,
and the storms (probably in the form of a Mesoscale Convective
System) will likely affect a few of our TAF sites Thursday evening
into Thursday night. This will be further assessed with subsequent
model data. East to southeast winds early tonight will veer to the
south toward morning. Increased and somewhat gusty south or south-
southeast winds are expected Thursday from mid-morning through the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  85  67  81 /  20  40  50  50
San Angelo  69  92  70  90 /  20  30  30  40
Junction    72  94  72  94 /  20  20  30  40
Brownwood   69  84  68  82 /  10  20  50  60
Sweetwater  67  87  67  82 /  20  40  40  50
Ozona       70  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20
Brady       70  87  70  85 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19