549
FXUS64 KSJT 231931
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
231 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Most of the convection has now exited the area off to the east,
although a moist and unstable air mass remains. CAPE vales above
5000 J/Kg with little convective inhibition left and shear values
of 45 to 50 knots. However, dryline remains fairly diffuse and
not making only slow progress mixing east into a moist air mass
full of clouds, although visible satellite is showing a little
better cu development along the dryline across the western Concho
Valley. There does not appear to be much support aloft with
shortwaves now east of the area. Latest runs of the CAMs show very
little convection for the rest of the afternoon and evening,
focusing mainly along the dryline across Oklahoma and then along
some outflow boundaries across North Central Texas.

Given the air mass and its potential, and the agitated Cu field
developing to the west, will pull the mention of storms farther
west into the Concho Valley and Big Country this afternoon, but
will limit to 20% for now given the lack of upper support.

Dryline makes better progress across the area on Friday, with
again the CAMs showing almost nothing for storms. Best chances
are certainly east of the area for tomorrow afternoon and will
keep POPs mainly out of the forecast for now. A little more
downslope winds for tomorrow will boost temperatures to near or
above the 100 degree mark for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Most attention on the shorter term today, but still looks like a
hot and dry forecast through Memorial Day for the area. Upper
level ridge moves across the area, helping boost temperatures into
the 100 to 105 range for some areas. Weak shortwave helps bring a
chance of storms, more clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures
for mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  94  64  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  67 100  63 102 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    72 102  68 104 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   69  94  68  96 /   0  10   0  10
Sweetwater  67  92  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       68  99  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       70  96  68  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07