Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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837 FXUS64 KSJT 211830 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 130 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of the western half of the CONUS. A dryline will mix east across at least the northern and western parts of our area today. By late afternoon, the dryline should extend from east of Wichita Falls to Putnam to just west of Sonora. A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening along the dryline. Carrying slight chance PoP for the area generally east of an Albany to Ballinger to Eden line. Cap strength will be an issue and may not have any storm development. However, with strong instability and effective bulk shear around 50 knots, have a conditional risk for large to very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts with any storms that can develop. Temperatures will be hot again today, especially behind the dryline. But some presence of high clouds should have a slight limiting effect. Expect highs to range from the lower to mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of the I-10 corridor. The dryline will retreat west and northwest of our area overnight, and low-level moisture transport with southerly winds will result in warm and humid conditions overnight. Lows will be 71-74 degrees across our area. Expect low cloud development from the south late tonight, to the I-20 corridor by daybreak. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through Thursday. The front that will have pushed into central Texas on Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region. Thunderstorm chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across north-central Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the quasi-zonal flow. However, there will be some potential for severe storms across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood. Further southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack of upper dynamics. A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through Sunday. Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central Texas during this time. A weak frontal boundary looks to stall around I-20 on Friday. This is likely to hold temperatures below 100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such luck for areas further south. Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend. Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold front should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is still uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance showing highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100. Regardless, we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and chances for showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at least some temporary relief from the heat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 MVFR ceilings are clearing out, leaving VFR conditions for the rest of today. Winds could briefly become northwest this afternoon, before switching back to the south. Thunderstorms this evening should stay to the east of the area. Low clouds are expected to return for KJCT, KSOA, KBBD, and possibly KSJT overnight and into tomorrow morning. A cold front will move south through the area tomorrow, switching winds to the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 87 68 92 / 10 50 20 20 San Angelo 73 95 70 98 / 10 20 20 10 Junction 75 95 71 98 / 10 30 20 10 Brownwood 73 91 70 89 / 20 50 30 30 Sweetwater 69 87 67 96 / 10 50 20 10 Ozona 73 96 70 99 / 10 10 20 10 Brady 73 93 70 91 / 10 40 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...AP