Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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450 FXUS64 KSJT 220916 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 416 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...Severe storms expected this afternoon into tonight... Currently, we have light southeasterly flow to the south of a cold front that is moving south through the southern plains. This cold front is expected to move south into our area today, with most guidance showing the front near or just south of a San Angelo to San Saba line by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures by mid afternoon south of the front will climb well into the 90s, while north of the front, low to mid 80s are likely. Dewpoint values are expected to remain in the mid 60s to low, and possibly mid 70s, with increasing moisture the farther east you go. This combination of warm temps and high dewpoints will yield CAPE values along and south of the front from 3000 to as high as 4400 J/kg. This instability, along with ample mid level instability, and deep layer shear values of 40+ knots will result in any thunderstorms developing quickly strengthening to severe levels. Not only will these storms be severe, but hail of 2 inches or larger is likely, especially with the initial storms that are expected to be discrete supercells. Along with the very large hail, a few tornadoes are also possible, particularly any storms that move along the frontal boundary or any outflow boundaries from neighboring storms. Individual storm motions are expected to be to the east/southeast, but some right-moving storms will likely develop a more southerly direction. As the event evolves, these discrete storms should grow upscale into a southeastward moving MCS during the evening hours. As this occurs, there will be a growing risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail, and a few tornadoes. Expect most of the thunderstorm activity to be south and east of our area by Midnight or so, although some of the CAMs do develop additional scattered showers and storms after midnight, mainly south of I-20. These should be much less intense, but could offer some marginally severe hail or wind gusts. Other than the storms, temperatures will be hot south of the front, and combined with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s, there is a risk for heat-related illnesses for anyone working or exercising outside. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through Thursday. The front that will have pushed into central Texas on Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region. Thunderstorm chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across north-central Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the quasi-zonal flow. However, there will be some potential for severe storms across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood. Further southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack of upper dynamics. A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through Sunday. Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central Texas during this time. A weak frontal boundary looks to stall around I-20 on Friday. This is likely to hold temperatures below 100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such luck for areas further south. Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend. Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold front should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is still uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance showing highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100. Regardless, we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and chances for showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at least some temporary relief from the heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 We currently have VFR conditions at all sites with SCT to BKN upper level clouds streaming across the area. Although it`s difficult to see through the high clouds, low clouds at MVFR heights can be seen developing to our south and moving north into our area. Have kept the same general timing of MVFR CIGs from the previous set of TAFs. Will have MVFR ceilings affect all of our sites tonight into the mid to late morning hours. A cold front will move south into the area during day as well, turning wind to the northeast at KABI by midday, as well as bringing a chance of TSRA to KABI, KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT during the afternoon and evening hours, that may bring temporary MVFR conditions as well as gusty and erratic winds. After storms move out of the area between 00Z and 03Z, most sites should return to VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 68 91 69 / 50 30 20 0 San Angelo 99 70 99 67 / 30 20 10 0 Junction 99 72 99 71 / 20 20 10 0 Brownwood 87 69 89 71 / 50 40 30 0 Sweetwater 85 68 94 66 / 40 10 10 0 Ozona 98 71 99 68 / 10 20 10 0 Brady 93 70 91 71 / 40 30 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...20