855
FXUS64 KSJT 270550
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1250 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Drier west to northwest air was moving in behind a surface
trough/Pacific front located from Junction to Brady to Brownwood
at noon, where dew points were in the lower 70s. A few cumulus
were developing in this area, but it should remain capped as the
drier air moves in.

The drier air will be only temporary, however, as southeasterly
winds return, bringing dew points back into the 60s to near 70s
from Junction to Brownwood in the morning Monday and into the
eastern Big Country east of an Abilene to Throckmorton line in the
afternoon. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms from Junction to
Menard to Brownwood in the afternoon, where the NAM NEST and HRR
models hint at afternoon convection. A few storms may develop
later in the evening along east of a Junction to Abilene to
Haskell line, where SPC has a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

For Monday night, isolated thunderstorms are possible east of a
Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line. Any storm that does
develop will probably become severe due to extreme instability and
good vertical wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail,
damaging winds and an isolated tornado.

Going back into a wet pattern for mainly northern and eastern areas
by middle of this week. Thunderstorms will fire along a dryline
to our west Tuesday afternoon and move into our area during the
late afternoon and evening hours. There will be extreme
instability and good deep layer shear in the warm/moist sector. As
a result, a few storms may be severe Tuesday, especially west of
Sweetwater to Ballinger to Junction line. The main hazards will be
large hail and damaging winds.

The chance of rain will increase Tuesday through Thursday. The
combination of a wavy frontal boundary, upper level disturbances
moving by and PW values of 1.25 to 1.75 inches will result in a
few rounds of thunderstorms, possible MCS`s. Going with medium
chance Pops across much of the area, but the Pops may increase as
we get closer. Also, a few severe storms are possible mainly
Wednesday as we are in the peak of severe weather season. Again,
the heaviest rainfall(locally 2 to 4 inches possible) looks to be
east of a Mertzon to Sonora line where flooding is possible for
Tuesday night through Thursday. The WPC Excessive Rainfall outlook
has much of our area in a slight risk Tuesday and Tuesday night
and then marginal Wednesday. Still isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms possible next weekend. For temperatures, the warmest
day will be Tuesday with highs mainly in the 90s and then cooler
by middle of this week, with highs only in the lower 80s across
the Big Country Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals, but confidence was too low to
include a mention in this TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  70  90  65 /   0  20  60  60
San Angelo 103  71  96  67 /   0  10  60  50
Junction   106  70  98  69 /  20  20  40  50
Brownwood   97  70  89  67 /  20  20  50  60
Sweetwater 100  72  93  66 /   0  10  70  50
Ozona      103  73  95  67 /   0  10  50  40
Brady       98  70  92  67 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42