579
FXUS65 KSLC 301937
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
137 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A gradual warming trend will continue into Saturday.
A weak, mainly dry cold front will cross the area Sunday, with a
slightly stronger dry cold front crossing the area later Monday
into Tuesday. Thereafter, confidence is high (70-80%) for an early
season heat wave developing late next week into the following
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...
This afternoon, a surface front extends across southern UT.
Limited mid-level moisture associated with this weakening front
will support some isolated convective development over the
southern Mountains. Visible satellite as of 1930Z shows cumulus
cloud development thus far with limited vertical extent. Expect a
few isolated showers will develop, particularly off of Boulder
summit, and drift eastward this evening in the background westerly
flow. A very dry subcloud layer will largely preclude any
isolated flash flood threat, with the greater hazard potential
being isolated gusty winds from any dry microbursts that can
develop.

On Friday, the boundary will continue to weaken while drifting
back to the north across central UT. This will support additional
isolated high-based convective development, this time mainly over
the central UT terrain. Again dry sub-cloud layers and limited
instability will mainly setup for isolated showers with
gusty/erratic outflow winds.

Otherwise, the refreshingly cooler temperatures across northern
UT behind the front today will start to rebound as the airmass
continues to modify under the high late-May sun angle. Afternoon
highs on Friday will run about 5 degrees warmer than today across
northern UT, and only about 2 degrees warmer than today across
southern UT.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 258 AM MDT...
Our weekend forecast is looking generally unremarkable weather
wise but that stated there is the slightest of potentials for rain
in our weekend forecast. Looking at the overall weather pattern,
we note a broad upper trough to our west Saturday which is
forecast to track eastward and bring a mostly dry cool front
through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. This front is quite
weak. But yet, it will bring some slightly cooler temperatures
Sunday in its wake as well as a slight chance for precipitation.

For the start of next week, high pressure is forecast to build back
into the region and allow for temperatures to climb once more.
Wouldn`t discount just how warm Monday could potentially get. While
record breaking temperatures seem unlikely (about a 10% chance to
reach the 97 degree record at the SLC airport), if some of the
European ensemble members come true temperatures will be close!
Monday will probably feel like a tease toward warmer temperatures
because by the afternoon or evening, yet another trough and weak
cool front is forecast to head toward the region. While expected to
mostly impact areas to our north, portions of northern Utah just
might just clipped by it. As a result, another chance for rain
showers is forecast. And because this is another frontal passage,
cooler temperatures will follow for Tuesday. This really will be a
roller coaster of temperature swings until Wednesday across the
north.

The heat is on by Wednesday as a strong high pressure area settles
over the Great Basin. And it doesn`t leave the region through the
rest of the week. Wednesday is looking to be a triple digit day
across much of Washington County in southwest Utah, where a 50 to
70% chance to exceed 100 degrees exists. These chances only increase
headed into Thursday, so as the forecast stands now, look for
Thursday to be the hottest day out of the week. Additionally, Glen
Canyon/Lake Powell is looking to reach the 100 degree mark Thursday
as well with around a 70% chance near Big Water and Bullfrog. As for
the rest of Utah, forecast highs Thursday are looking to generally
be into the 90s but remain below triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northerly gradient across the airfield will
support northerly winds holding on a bit longer than typical this
evening, likely switching to the south around 05Z and remain light
overnight. With this gradient, winds will switch back to the
north a bit earlier than normal on Friday, around 16Z. VFR
conditions will prevail through the period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast
across the region today with either clear skies or high based
clouds. A northerly gradient behind a cold front will favor
keeping a northerly component to the surface winds south through
about CDC today. On Friday, the front retreats north into central
UT, allowing southwesterly winds to return across southern UT TAF
sites, while more northerly winds remain in place across northern
UT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
On Friday a weak frontal boundary will continue to wash out while
shifting from southern UT into central UT. Very limited mid-level
moisture along the boundary will support some isolated high-based
showers, some of which could produce gusty/erratic outflow winds.
The decaying front will rebound further north on Saturday as a
storm system passed by to our north, increasing dry, southwesterly
flow before the weak front is pushed back south into northern UT
for Sunday. A few isolated showers with gusty/erratic outflow
winds are possible across northern UT late Saturday. Wetting rain
remains highly unlikely (<5% chance) with these showers.

After another mostly dry frontal passage from Monday into
Tuesday, a warming/drying trend begins in earnest through the
remainder of the week and into the following weekend. Confidence
is high (70-80% chance) of an early season heat wave developing as
robust high pressure builds over the western Great Basin and into
the interior Pac NW through the following week. This will keep
mainly hot and dry conditions in place.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Church
LONG TERM...NDeSmet
AVIATION...Church
FIRE WEATHER...Church

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity