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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000
FXUS65 KSLC 150958
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
358 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A slow moving upper level system will bring valley
rain and mountain snow to the region through tonight. Brief high
pressure will build into the area through Tuesday night. A weak
front may impact portions of northern Utah through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...After a few days of
temperatures more reminiscent of May than mid-April, a change back
to below normal temperatures will continue across the region
through the short term forecast period. Morning upper air and
satellite analysis indicates an upper level low and associated
trough are crossing the Great Basin. The low is currently centered
close to the St. George area. Widespread precipitation is noted
on radar.

Expect widespread valley rain and mountain snow to continue
through the evening and into tonight. The heaviest mountain snow
is expected from roughly 18Z to 08Z, with amounts approaching high
end winter weather advisory totals. The going winter weather
advisory is on track, though started the winter weather advisories
immediately rather than later this morning for all mountain zones
based on current trends. Currently, the winter weather advisories
end at 9 PM and given current model trends, this may need to be
extended for the Wasatch Mountains south of I-80 further into the
overnight period.

With a strong northwesterly gradient across Castle Country, there
is a threat of strong winds for the SR-10 corridor, especially
from Castle Dale to Fremont Junction this afternoon into tonight.
Currently the window of wind gusts to 45-50 mph looks to be less
than 3 hours, with only a 15% chance of any wind gusts above 58
mph. With a lack of depth to the strong northwest flow, conceptual
models would suggest more a brief period of gusty winds for the
SR-10 corridor as well. For now, held off on any wind advisories
due to lack of sufficient duration of the winds, but this should
be monitored with updated guidance later this morning.

The trough will pull away from the area by Tuesday morning,
bringing a period of shortwave ridging through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...Long term period begins with a
grazing shortwave trough and associated jet max positioned just
north of the local forecast region. A weak associated baroclinic
zone will try and dip southward into northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming, which in combination with some limited moisture will
yield some isolated to scattered precipitation chances
accordingly. In general though, anticipate the best chances remain
limited to the higher terrain, with overall rain/snow
accumulation minimal. Otherwise, largely just expecting this
feature to help keep afternoon temperatures across the northern
1/3 of the forecast region or so near to a bit below
climatological normal. Further into southern Utah temperatures
will continue their upward trend, with afternoon highs around 5 to
10 degrees above normal. This feature will help keep similar
temperatures in place for Thursday, but with forcing a bit more
limited, precipitation chances trend downwards.

Overall, guidance supports the baroclinic zone lifting further
north by Friday with the trough largely exiting, allowing warming
trend to re-emerge in the northern portions of the forecast
region, and warmth to persist across the southern portions of the
forecast region. Precipitation chances remain minimal, and largely
tied to the high terrain during the daytime hours. This general
increasingly ridge dominant pattern remains favored by around 60%
of global ensemble members moving into the weekend, with some
showing potential for a moderately strong ridge (which would
likely yield temperatures on the higher side of forecast guidance
and more subdued precipitation chances). The remaining 40% or so
keep a more active northern stream ongoing along with more weak
grazing style shortwaves, which would yield a marginally more
unsettled pattern and temperatures a bit on the cooler side of
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds may be gusty near showers
through 12-15Z this morning, with occasional high end MVFR
conditions. A shift to north to northwest winds is expected
between 14-16Z, but periods of rain with occasional MVFR
conditions will continue for much of the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mountain snow (largely above
7000 feet) with valley rain will bring periods of high end MVFR to
IFR conditions in snow across most of the region. There is a
10-20% chance of thunder across northern and central areas after
18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ111>113-117-125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Warthen

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity