470
FXUS65 KSLC 100958
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
358 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A brief cooldown will be experienced across central
and northern Utah, as well as southwest Wyoming, through Friday.
Building high pressure from the weekend into the upcoming week
then results in the return of warming temperatures and continued
dry conditions through at least midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Early Thursday morning
analysis indicated the presence of a shortwave trough pivoting
eastward across northern Utah, with a weakening cold front located
in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. The shortwave is aiding in
the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across
northeastern Utah and southwestern Wyoming early this morning.
These locations will remain situated in a region of favorable
ascent upstream of the shortwave through early afternoon,
suggesting additional isolated convective development through this
timeframe, before subsidence in the wake of the shortwave quells
any additional convective development after mid-afternoon. This
activity is expected to remain rather benign, with the main threat
being occasional lightning.

Temperatures will fall 5F to 10F across northern and central Utah
in the wake of the aforementioned cold front, with essentially no
change across southern Utah temperatures owing to the fact that
temperature advection will be negligible as the front diminishes.
Steady-state conditions will be in place area-wide for Friday,
with little resultant day-to-day change in temperatures when
compared to Thursday. With nebulous forcing and a lack of moisture
in place Friday, the only area with a very limited (<15% chance)
for an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be relegated to the
high Uintas.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...High pressure centered over
southern California will keep conditions dry across the area through
the weekend with near normal temperatures across central and
northern Utah/SW Wyoming. Hotter temperatures between 105-108F are
expected for lower Washington county given their closer proximity to
the warmer temperatures aloft associated with the high. A shortwave
ridge moves through the northern CWA later in the weekend that will
help to increase temperatures aloft with subsequent surface
temperatures increasing a few degrees above normal into the upper
90s.

By early next week the aforementioned ridge across southern
California will become positioned just offshore. Additionally, a
trough passing through the PNW will help to advect some mid and
upper level moisture into the area by the middle of next week. This
will help to spark some high-based convection. Most guidance has
this trough staying well to the north, but if dips a bit further
south then it could provide some better lift to get some more
coverage in convection, outside of just the higher terrain. This
added moisture will at least result in a bit of cloud cover that
will try to limit high temperatures to sub-100s.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Post-frontal winds will remain out of the
north most of the day with dry conditions and clearing skies.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. A front moving through
the airspace will keep isolated convection possible (~20%) across
the far northeast airspace through ~15Z. Behind the front winds will
remain out of the north, but struggle to make it to the far southern
terminals. Daytime wind gusts will increase out of the north with dry
conditions and clearing skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will diminish across southern Utah on
Thursday. Behind the front, a modest increase in humidity of 5-10
percent will combine with a modest cooldown of 5F to 10F. Expect a
change in wind direction as well, as a largely northwest flow will
be in place across northern and central Utah, with flow transitioning
to a westerly orientation across southern Utah. Breezy conditions
will be in place across eastern and southern Utah, leading to
local critical fire weather conditions, especially across The
Swell and The Book Cliffs where wind and topography locally align.
Across these areas, occasional W-NW wind gusts of 20-25 mph will
combine with minimum relative humidity values of 5-15 percent.

From Friday into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
gradually build into the Great Basin, resulting in a gradual
warming trend, with winds trending towards a terrain-driven
regime. Temperatures will return to 5F to 15F above normal by the
end of the weekend into early next week, along with increasingly
poor overnight recovery, especially in thermal belts.

Heading towards the middle to later portion of next week, there
is a signal pointing towards a modest increase in moisture,
particularly across southern Utah. It`s worth noting that
confidence is low in the location and amount of potential
moisture, with a wide range in potential forecast outcomes ranging
from isolated dry lightning with little to no rain on the dry end
of the model spectrum, to enough moisture to provide some spotty
wetting rains on the wetter end of the spectrum. Either way, this
does not appear to be a significant monsoonal moisture surge at
this time.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity