768
FXUS65 KSLC 091010
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
410 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The active pattern will continue today. A weak cold
front will bring temporary relief to the heat across northern and
central Utah Monday. Strong high pressure will build back into the
area Tuesday into Thursday, bringing very hot temperatures once
again to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...The axis of the ridge extends
from southeast to northwest Utah this morning. A weak disturbance is
currently riding over the top of this ridge and grazing northwest
Utah. This is resulting in lingering showers across portions of
northern Utah early this morning. These showers will continue to
spread eastward across northern Utah through the morning hours.

The ridge will be shifting east of the area later today ahead of an
upstream trough making its way onto the West Coast. This will bring
increased southerly flow to Utah. Improved mixing and H7
temperatures returning to 16C across west-central Utah this
afternoon will allow for a warming trend across portions of northern
and central Utah today, while southern Utah cools slightly.

With the lingering moisture in place (0.6-0.9 inches of PWAT),
increased dynamic forcing ahead of the trough, and 500-1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE will allow for increased thunderstorm coverage today, with
generally stronger storms compared to yesterday. Given drier air
working its way into southwest Utah, showers and thunderstorms will
be mostly confined to far northern Utah and the northern and central
mountains and adjacent valleys to their east. Gusty winds will be
the main threat, although localized moderate rain will be possible
as well. Across far northern Utah, around 20-25kt of SFC-H5 shear
exists, which could increase the chance of small hail as well.

Showers will gradually wind down tonight as a weak cold front sags
into northern and central Utah. The cooler temperatures behind this
front will bring a bit of a respite from the recent warm
temperatures, even if afternoon maxes tomorrow will remain around 3-
8 degrees above climatological normals. The airmass will also
continue to gradually trend drier tomorrow. Even so, a few weak
diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain possible, mainly over the
higher terrain.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...The long-term period begins
with building high pressure, resulting in warmer, drier conditions
across the area. Temperatures will likely peak on Wednesday and
Thursday, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Highs along the
Wasatch Front are likely to be in the mid- to upper-90s, with highs
in St. George and near Lake Powell reaching as high as 108F. There`s
even a small (15%) chance that KSLC sees its first 100F.

A closed low, briefly stalling just off the coast of SoCal, will
start to move inland late Thursday, weakening and grazing past
southern UT likely by Friday afternoon. This will moderate
temperatures across much of the area, lowering highs by around 5-10
degrees. Additionally, this low will bring a plume of modest
moisture in from the south, especially across eastern Utah,
resulting in high-based convection on Friday afternoon.

Heading into the weekend, uncertainty in the forecast increases,
though overall trends suggest the development of a trough over the
PacNW, potentially bringing a further cooling trend to our area as
early as Day 7 (Sunday).

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds are likely to persist, at least
through the morning hours. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across northern UT Sunday afternoon will
produce gusty outflow winds that may eventually reach KSLC,
potentially causing a significant wind shift. There`s a 10% chance
of showers reaching KSLC itself during the afternoon. VFR conditions
will prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A cluster of light showers
will continue to move across portions of northern UT (north of KSLC
and east of the Great Salt Lake), reaching KOGD and KLGU by 12-13z.
These may produce some squirrely wind directions at times, though
speeds should remain below 12kts. Otherwise, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop after 19z, mainly across northwestern UT
and also central-eastern UT from KRIF to KPVU-KHCR-KEVW and
eastward. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and
erratic outflow winds. Southwesterly to southerly winds will be
favored outside of any showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southerly winds will increase today ahead of the
next approaching weather disturbance that will graze northern Utah
this evening into tomorrow morning. Winds will be strongest across
southern Utah where they will combine with dry conditions and result
in marginally critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, lingering
showers will continue this morning across northern Utah, then by
this afternoon, expect more scattered coverage of storms mainly
across far northern Utah and across the central and northern Utah
mountains and adjacent valleys to their east. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and
localized wetting rain, while closer to the Idaho border, small hail
will be possible as well.

A weak cold front will sag into northern and central Utah late
tonight into tomorrow, bringing a cooling trend to the area. Some
lingering moisture tomorrow will continue to bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to the area, mainly over the higher terrain.
Thereafter, a drier and warmer airmass will then dominate for the
midweek timeframe. The next storm system looks to eject across
southern Utah late in the week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Cunningham

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