445
FXUS65 KSLC 291030
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
430 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will make its way through Utah today
bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
with it. In southern Utah, dry and windy conditions are forecast.
Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are forecast tomorrow
but by Friday onward temperatures areawide return to near to above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...It has been a more active
overnight period than anticipated complete with heat bursts and
several outflow boundaries across northern Utah. Around 1 am, a
very noticeable heat burst made it way across Antelope Island,
through portions of Davis County and straight across the Ogden
Airport, producing a wind gust of 78 mph. As of 330 am, the
strongest outflow boundary was pushing across the south end of the
Great Salt Lake with 40 mph wind gusts and dissipating. Rather
eventful indeed!

A cold frontal passage will be the primary weather event of the
day today across the region. This front will be making its way
through far northern Utah early this morning, making its way
through north and western Utah the rest of the morning and into
central Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon. Accompanying
this front will be isolated to widely scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the favored areas of thunderstorms this
morning include the west desert and areas north of Ogden. Headed
into the afternoon, favored areas will shift southward, including
along the Wasatch Front. Given that thunderstorm parameters are
forecast to be more elevated today when comparing to yesterday,
all should keep one eye on the weather for potential impacts. This
means additional potential for microbursts, gusty outflow winds
and some potential for small hail/heavy rain in a few of the
better elevated cores. Conversely, the weather story in southern
and eastern Utah will be one of dry and windy conditions today.
Wind gusts, especially this afternoon, are forecast in the 20 to
30 mph range.

Generally speaking, a cooler and drier forecast is in store for
tomorrow. We are looking at a 5 to 10 degree temperature drop
tomorrow when compared to seasonal normals and also when
compared to todays high temperatures! Not all will see this
dramatic of a change in temperature though. St. George and
vicinity, will hardly notice a change, nor will any of the
national parks in southern Utah. Most of the state is expected to
be precip-free tomorrow as well, but we can`t rule out a chance
for afternoon convection in southern Utah largely due to diurnal
heating.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...The beginning of the long term
portion of the forecast and subsequent end of the work week will be
punctuated by transient shortwave ridging across the region. This
will usher in a brief warming trend, which is expected to briefly
peak on Saturday, when temperatures will rise to around 10F above
normal from central Utah northward to around 5F above normal across
southern Utah. There is good consensus in the passage of a mainly
dry cold front for Sunday, which will drop temperatures down a
couple of degrees as well as bring the risk for isolated showers and
storms across northern Utah and SW Wyoming both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon/early evening. Brief, transient shortwave ridging then
builds across the area Monday before potentially another grazing
trough and associated mainly dry cold front swings across northern
Utah and SW Wyoming late Monday into Tuesday. This feature is
represented by roughly 3/4 of the model solution space, whereas
previous runs were building a ridge of high pressure into the region
by this time. That said, nearly all available ensembles and their
associated members build a strong ridge across the PacNW and
Northern Rockies from the middle of next week into at least next
weekend. The strength of this ridge is challenging 30-year model
climatology by the end of next week, which could portend record-
challenging temperatures by the end of next week, particularly across
northern Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Cold front will pass across northern Utah late
this morning. S winds initially at the terminal will begin to turn
to the SW around 14Z, to the west between 15Z-16Z and finally to the
NW around 18Z and become gusty in the afternoon with gusts around
25kts. Isolated showers between 21Z and 02Z capable of producing
gusty, erratic winds. Winds will most likely remain north to
northwest tonight with only about a 20% chance for light south winds
returning around 12Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A cold front will move across
northern Utah and SW Wyoming this morning before settling across
central Utah this afternoon and evening. Abrupt wind shift to the N-
NW will accompany the cold frontal passage, with gusts in the 20-30kt
range common. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along and
behind the front, and these will be capable of producing microbursts
and gusty and erratic outflow winds. Areas from Delta to Moab across
central Utah have the highest probability for these winds, but the
risk extends as far north as areas near the Idaho border and as far
south as a Cedar City to Bryce Canyon line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For the next two days, fire weather concerns
will lie in two distinct areas in the state. The first across
northern/western Utah where a frontal boundary will create
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and increase risk for lightning and dry
microbursts. This risk will be confined to today only. The
second area will be far southern into eastern Utah both
today and tomorrow where ahead of the frontal boundary,
elevated winds and wind gusts are forecast out of the west.
Here, very dry conditions are also forecast both days and
especially this afternoon. Critically dry RH values in the
single digits are forecast.  Improving conditions are generally
forecast statewide by Friday when drier conditions are forecast.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

NDeSmet and ADeSmet

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