Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
824 FXUS65 KSLC 102208 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 408 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler conditions will remain in place across central and northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming on Friday, with continued hot conditions expected across southern Utah. A warming and drying trend is anticipated across the region through early next week, with mid-level moisture bringing potential for isolated high- based showers and thunderstorms in the southern mountains from Monday forward. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...In the wake of a cold front that moved across the northern/ central portions of the forecast area early Thursday morning, temperatures across much of the western and northern area have seen high temperatures about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Additionally, post-frontal breezy winds observed across eastern Utah have combined with critically low relative humidity to create isolated areas of critical fire weather conditions, particularly in the San Rafael Swell area. These breezy winds are expected to relax as we head into the overnight hours, decreasing any lingering fire weather concerns. The cooler airmass that has draped across the area, mainly over the northern half of the CWA, will linger through tomorrow and bring very little, if any, change in the temperature forecast for tomorrow. Along the Wasatch Front, temperatures will remain in upper-80s to low-90s alongside clear skies. Breezy afternoon conditions are expected to linger across portions of eastern Utah during the afternoon tomorrow, bringing some isolated elevated fire weather conditions in the Castle Country region and the western portions of the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. Limited mid- level moisture will remain draped across northeastern Utah through the afternoon hours tomorrow, bringing a very low chance (>15%) of high-based showers over the Uinta Mountains. Otherwise, no significant weather is anticipated across the forecast area for Friday. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 358 AM MDT... High pressure centered over southern California will keep conditions dry across the area through the weekend with near normal temperatures across central and northern Utah/SW Wyoming. Hotter temperatures between 105-108F are expected for lower Washington county given their closer proximity to the warmer temperatures aloft associated with the high. A shortwave ridge moves through the northern CWA later in the weekend that will help to increase temperatures aloft with subsequent surface temperatures increasing a few degrees above normal into the upper 90s. By early next week the aforementioned ridge across southern California will become positioned just offshore. Additionally, a trough passing through the PNW will help to advect some mid and upper level moisture into the area by the middle of next week. This will help to spark some high-based convection. Most guidance has this trough staying well to the north, but if dips a bit further south then it could provide some better lift to get some more coverage in convection, outside of just the higher terrain. This added moisture will at least result in a bit of cloud cover that will try to limit high temperatures to sub-100s. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight at the SLC terminal. Northerly winds will persist a little longer than normal this evening, shifting to the south around 8Z given the northerly pressure gradient across the area. The south winds will be light and shift back to the north more quickly than normal again tomorrow by around 16Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace throughout the period. Generally northerly winds will persist across the area, except across far southern Utah where more westerly flow is in place. Areas of smoke are possible across southern Utah from area wildfires. && .FIRE WEATHER...An area of high pressure will build in the wake of the recent cold frontal boundary that moved across northern/ central Utah through the upcoming weekend. As such, a steady warming and drying trend will be seen across Utah, with high temperatures bumping up 2-3 degrees each day across the northern and central portions of Utah. Relative humidity across the region will remain very low each day, with minimum values staying in the upper single-digits to low-teens. Additionally, poor overnight recovery is expected across much of Utah, but especially across southwestern, eastern Utah, and the West Desert through at least Monday morning. Recoveries will only range from 25-35% in these areas, and as low as around 18% for portions of eastern Utah. By late Sunday/ Monday, there is increasing confidence that mid- level moisture will begin to work into the southern half of Utah. As such, we`ll begin to see afternoon build-ups of isolated high- based showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern Utah mountains. The primary threats associated with these showers will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and lightning, which could become problematic after an extended dry period. This moisture is anticipated to linger through at least Thursday, with each day gaining increasing probability of receiving precipitation at the surface. That said, chances for wetting rain is expected to be quite low through this period as sufficient lower level moisture will be lacking. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Webber LONG TERM...Mahan AVIATION...Church FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity