649
FNUS75 KSLC 211656
FWSSLC

Spot Forecast for Ikes valley...USFS
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1056 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front passage late last night/early this morning has
ushered in slightly cooler and much drier air across the burn site
today. Temperatures will run about 5 degrees cooler, with min RH
values about 3% lower today compared to yesterday. However, RH
recoveries will be much more limited the next two night (only into
the 30s%) with that much drier airmass in place. Winds today
through tonight will be out of the north behind the cold front,
but will trend back to the west-southwest on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front for Thursday.

Looking ahead, a cold front will move through Northern Utah on
Thursday, but stall and wash out across central Utah Thursday into
Friday. Temperatures at the burn site aren`t expected to respond
significantly as this front stalls likely just north of the site.
However, humidity values will increase some Thursday and Friday
with mid 20s% during the day and better recoveries into the 50-60%
range overnight. An isolated shower cannot but ruled out, but any
appreciable rain is not expected.

Generally dry and breezy conditions are expected to continue into
the weekend with daily afternoon wind gusts peaking around 25 mph
and min RH values around 20-25%. Into next week we start to see a
warming and drying trend as high pressure builds over and just
downstream from Utah. Expect temperatures to run about 10 degrees
warmer next week from this week, and RH values are expected to
drop into the teens each day. Initially winds will be a little
lighter Monday and Tuesday, but increase by mid next week
returning to mid 20s mph gusts each day.

There is a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures and 40-50%
chance of below normal precipitation through the last week of May
into the first week of June, with a 60-70% chance of above normal
temperatures continuing through the first half of June.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........An isolated rain shower may develop (20% chance)
near the fire site this afternoon.
                    Partly cloudy (45-55 percent cloud cover) then
                    becoming mostly sunny (20-30 percent cloud
                    cover).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....58-60. About 5 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Min humidity........15-17 percent. About 3% lower than yesterday.
Wind (20 ft)........North 8-14 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the
afternoon.
Clearing index......1000+.
Haines Index........4.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent cloud cover).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....33-35.
Max humidity........32-34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 4-10 mph.
Haines Index........4.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent cloud cover).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....64-66.
Min humidity........12-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-southwest  5-10 mph in the morning becoming
10-15 mph in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph.
Clearing index......1000+.
Haines Index........5.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest
winds around 9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy with slight chance (20%) of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds around 6 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. A slight chance (15%) of showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70.

$$
Forecaster...Church
Requested by...Bode Mecham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414833.0/SLC
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bode.mecham@usda.gov