Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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759 FXUS62 KTAE 031023 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 623 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder have developed along the land breeze off the Emerald Coast that have been drifting northward. This should continue into the early morning hours before the sea breeze gets going this afternoon. A shortwave will move across the Mid South this afternoon into the evening which may help provide just a little extra support for storms. Additionally, we`ll need to see how any possible outflow from an ongoing MCS over northern Louisiana and western Mississippi affects our rain chances or provides any extra lift. Hi-res guidance has not done a good job handling that complex thus far. Showers and storms will generally start near the coast through early afternoon, then migrate inland into the evening as the Gulf sea breeze advances inland. Meanwhile, during the evening hours, the Atlantic sea breeze may make it to the I-75 corridor, keeping lingering rain chances through the evening. The environment today is supportive of some gusty wind and locally heavy downpour potential with DCAPE around 800-900 J/kg and PWATs near 1.6-1.8 inches. Storms will diminish late this evening. Some patchy fog is also possible over southeast Alabama late tonight. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows tonight in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Mid level ridge over the eastern seaboard will push into the western Atlantic while mid level flow becomes more zonal Tuesday night and Wednesday then northwesterly Wednesday night. PWATs will be in the 1.6-1.8 range each day and as ripples in the flow move over the area in addition to the gulf and east coast sea breezes, will continue decent rain chances in the 40-50% range each day and favoring the eastern half of the forecast area and I75 corridor. In the northwest flow Wednesday night, there are indications that a possible MCS will develop in northern Alabama and slide southeast towards our northern and western counties by sunrise Thursday morning. Storms have the potential to produce strong and gusty winds, especially Wednesday as DCAPE values are over 1000 J/kg. Highs this period will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 If the MCS indeed develops Wednesday night into Thursday morning, it will move into the central portions of the CWA by the late morning while additional convection would develop to its south towards the coast. Thursday has the highest rain chances of the next week at 60-70%. Friday the GFS/ECMWF advertise a frontal passage with associated showers and storms accompanying it and additional development towards the afternoon along and south of the front. This will usher in a quick round of drier air Saturday ahead of another possible MCS from the plains/mid south that our area may receive a glancing blow from Sunday. Highs will be pushing the upper 90s by the weekend with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Satellite shows low stratus and patchy fog developing from about ECP to ABY with TLH and DHN on the fringe. IFR/LIFR conditions are possible in this swath of low stratus. VFR conditions are expected thereafter. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out near ECP this morning. TSRA will develop late this morning near ECP, then spread to TLH this afternoon, and DHN, ABY, and VLD late this afternoon. Gusty winds are possible in TSRA, but confidence too low to include at this time. Maintained VCTS at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Favorable marine conditions will set up for much of this week featuring light southeast winds and low seas thanks to high pressure located in the western Atlantic. Towards late week, winds clock to the west as a cold front approaches the area. Wind speeds and wave heights will experience a slight uptick but will remain below cautionary levels. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist each day with higher chances towards late week with the approaching cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Winds will start out of the southeast this morning, then become southwesterly this afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland. With light winds overall, dispersions will be fair today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast along the sea breeze late this morning, then spread inland through the afternoon. Frequent lightning and gusty, erratic winds are possible in and near storms. A similar patterns is expected on Tuesday followed by lower rain chances and high dispersions on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Decent rain chances will be in place this week with the typical summertime diurnal cycle of shower and thunderstorm development each day. Generally speaking 1-2 inches of rainfall could occur with locally higher amounts leading to localized flooding. Thursday and Friday appear to be the highest rain chance days with a possible MCS Thursday then a cold frontal passage Friday. No river flooding concerns are expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 70 91 70 / 60 10 50 10 Panama City 86 73 88 73 / 60 10 30 10 Dothan 88 70 91 70 / 40 20 40 10 Albany 90 70 91 71 / 30 20 50 20 Valdosta 90 69 92 70 / 40 30 50 20 Cross City 89 69 93 69 / 60 20 50 20 Apalachicola 85 73 86 74 / 50 10 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Young MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Scholl