205
FXUS62 KTAE 102003
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

With ample daytime heating in place, convection is beginning to fire
in our northern most counties along a frontal boundary sagging south
into our area. A marginal risk of severe storms is present this
evening for areas along and north of I-10. Overall, convection is
expected to generally be scattered and linger a bit this evening,
perhaps a little longer in our SW Georgia counties. The biggest
concerns with these storms will be strong gusty winds and hail.

Highs today were well into the mid to upper 90s, noticeably above
normal. Expect daytime temperatures tomorrow to be a few degrees
cooler, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible east of
Panama city, along I-10 and south of Valdosta. Overnight lows will
generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

From Tuesday night through Thursday, the upper trough that is
currently over the Southern High Plains will move east, getting
hung up over Florida as it gets boxed up by blocking subtropical
highs to the west and east.

At first on Wednesday, weak low-level northerly flow will keep the
air mass on the drier side, confining higher rain chances to our
Florida counties, and especially the southeast Big Bend where a
more richly moist air mass will remain.

By Thursday, very broad lowering of pressure over the southern or
southwestern Gulf will initiate a low-mid level southeast flow.
This will start to pump up more moisture and start an increasing
trend on rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The weekend pattern will transition more to a rex block, as the
subtropical 500 mb high moves east across the Tennessee Valley,
and the upper weakness settles south over the Gulf. In response, a
broad inverted trough or surface low could develop over the
southern or southwestern Gulf, deepening and strengthening the
east-southeast flow. Moisture will surge in and PW values will
rise to 2 inches or better. If a slow-moving band of rain can set
up in confluent southeast flow, then there will be concern for
flooding rains. Some global models and ensemble members point to
very heavy rainfall amounts, well in excess of flash flood
guidance. However, guidance is all over the place in where such a
heavy band of rain spreads onshore next Sunday and Monday,
ranging anywhere from Texas to Florida. For now, just know that
there is potential for flooding rain somewhere along the northern
Gulf Coast, but we still need more time to resolve whether that
will be in our forecast area, or off to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Currently VFR conditions with increasing cloud coverage this
afternoon. Winds will get a slight uptick as well, becoming
northerly as the night progresses. Scattered TSRA are expected this
afternoon and evening, mainly near KDHN and KABY. Reduced conditions
and gusty winds can be expected in and around any SHRA/TSRA. Skies
will then begin to clear from the north late in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A cold front will slip south through Alabama and Georgia this
evening preceded by gentle to moderate westerlies over the waters.
The front will struggle to get far into the Gulf on Tuesday
morning before dissipating on Wednesday. East to southeast breezes
will develop on Thursday and slowly freshen through Saturday, as a
broad area of low pressure carves out over the southern or
southwest Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly along
and north of I- 10, Then again tomorrow afternoon along the
panhandle and big bend areas. Slightly cooler temperatures and
slightly lower RH values through at least mid week before an
uptick in moisture is expected. No additional Fire Weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Through Saturday, concerns will be confined to short-lived runoff
issues beneath summer thunderstorms, due to intense instantaneous
rainfall rates.

Next Sunday and Monday, there is potential for a swath of heavy,
flood-producing rain to spread northward off the Gulf, affecting
somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. The heavy rain is most
likely to focus somewhere west of the Florida Panhandle, but there
is a vocal minority of guidance members painting impressive
rainfall amounts over our Florida counties. In other words, there
is a low chance for significant rainfall amounts well in excess
of flash flood guidance starting as soon as Sunday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  72  93 /  40  30  20  40
Panama City   74  91  73  91 /  40  20  20  30
Dothan        70  89  68  91 /  30  10  10  20
Albany        71  91  68  92 /  30  10  10  30
Valdosta      72  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  40
Cross City    73  93  72  92 /  20  50  40  60
Apalachicola  77  88  76  88 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Haner