349
FXUS62 KTAE 100529
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

No changes are needed to the forecast this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A frontal system looks to approach the region from the north with
southerly flow in place ahead of it. It looks to collide with the
sea breeze as it moves north throughout the afternoon hours on
Monday, providing ample low-level convergence. Models are still
indicating a more of a pulse thunderstorm setup and not a well
defined line that moves through. However, with ample forcing for
ascent, showers and storms will be widespread in coverage. With
MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg some storms may be sub-severe or
marginally severe with strong gusty winds as the primary threat.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak frontal boundary will slide south as surface high pressure
builds over the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes regions. Despite the
gradual weakening of the boundary, interaction with the seabreeze
will likely provide enough forcing to spark thunderstorms
particularly across the FL Big Bend where PoPs range from 30-50%.
Elsewhere, PoPs are generally less than 30% given drier mid-level
air pushing into the region. Temperatures on Tuesday are once
again expected to be quite warm with our FL counties pushing into
the low to mid 90s. Our SE AL and SW GA counties will generally
see temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Both Monday evening
and Tuesday evening will see low temperatures in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Uncertainty still remains high regarding the possible heavy rain
event this weekend. The upper level pattern on recent guidance
would not be as favorable regarding deep moisture making its way
into the northern Gulf, instead favoring the Peninsula and areas
east. This is due to a slower moisture transport regime than what
was previously shown across guidance and the upper trough moving
somewhat faster, perhaps still forming a cutoff low, displacing
the more robust moisture off to our east as previously mentioned.
This upper level pattern would also advect drier mid- upper level
air into the area via northeasterly flow. Additionally, new
guidance suggests that Wednesday and Thursday could be drier than
initially forecast given the slower moisture return resulting in
this being more of a weekend event.

Regardless, PWATs around 2-2.2" will be on tap and the seabreeze
will likely be active each afternoon. The most robust moisture
will be generally confined to the FL Big Bend extending to our
southernmost tier of SW GA counties. This is reflected in the PoPs
ranging from 60-80% each afternoon across the aforementioned
areas beginning Wednesday lasting through the weekend. Coverage
still remains questionable given the drier air aloft, though
highest confidence for thunderstorm development remains across the
aforementioned areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. For this
afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop with the most likely areas to see storms around DHN and ABY.
Gusty winds are possible with these storms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail outside of storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue through the
remainder of today and Monday with wave heights around 1 to 2
feet and light winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase tomorrow as a frontal boundary slides south and will
remain elevated throughout the week with the arrival of tropical
moisture. Beginning around midweek, wave heights will see an
increase with cautionary conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High dispersions continue through tomorrow region-wide. Tropical
moisture will begin to move into the region over the next few days
with MinRH values continuing to increase. This will also lead to
an increase in rain chances. There are currently no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of
today with no immediate hydro concerns. Tomorrow, a wet pattern
will begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed by tropical
moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite uncertain how
much rainfall will occur with this event at this time and is
highly dependent on how long the moisture will linger over the
region. Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in
action stage and are expected to continue lowering over the next
few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  73  92  72 /  30  40  40  20
Panama City   90  74  90  73 /  30  40  30  20
Dothan        92  70  89  68 /  50  30  10  10
Albany        94  70  90  69 /  50  30  10  10
Valdosta      95  72  92  71 /  40  50  30  20
Cross City    93  73  93  72 /  10  20  40  40
Apalachicola  89  77  88  75 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Worster