087
FXUS62 KTAE 301910
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Following a weak cold frontal passage this morning, a surface high
and upper level ridging will be moving east across our CWA through
Friday, keeping our area mainly dry and warm. It is possible that a
few showers/thunderstorms may develop along the afternoon seabreeze
in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend counties Friday afternoon.
PoPs are about 20-30 percent for Friday afternoon. Temperatures will
be warm on Friday with highs in the low to mid-90s for areas along
and south of I-10. Our AL and GA counties will be more seasonal for
the highs in the upper 80s. The overnight lows will be in the upper
60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Surface high pressure will slowly be ejecting southeast from the
Mid-Atlantic states off the coast of Georgia and Florida. As this
occurs, a higher PWAT airmass regime will start to slide eastward
out of the lower Mississippi valley towards the Tri-state area.
Through the midlevels, a shortwave trough will be pushing through
the northern Arkansas and western Tennessee. This shortwave
combined with higher PWATs between 1.5-1.75 inches will lead to
higher chances for thunderstorms across SE Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle. Some thunderstorms could produce strong winds, small
hail, and localized flash flooding. Drier air looks to remain
entrenched across SW Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, which will
likely lead to more isolated shower and thunderstorms potential
Saturday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to remain near
seasonal levels (20-40%) from Sunday through the middle of next
week. This is partially thanks to increasing PWAT values across
the region starting Saturday, but also due to several mid-level
vorticity perturbations in the 500mb flow pattern providing just
enough forcing for daily shower and thunderstorms. While PoPs will
remain around 20% from Monday through Wednesday, high temperatures
will be on the rise across the region with highs climbing into the
low to mid 90s areawide. through the middle of the work week.
Fortunately, dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 60s, which
will keep heat index values just below 100 through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Overall tranquil boating conditions are expected through Friday
morning, with small craft exercise caution easterly winds
developing around Friday afternoon. Easterly to southeasterly
winds Friday evening drop slightly to around 10 knots before a
nocturnal surge of cautionary easterly winds develops from
Apalachee Bay and surges westward towards the panhandle marine
zones by Saturday morning. This surge will possibly reach advisory
level winds briefly during this period. Winds look to calm again
Saturday afternoon and evening before another nocturnal surge
develops early Sunday morning. This surge will likely be the last
before more tranquil boating conditions return to the marine zones
through the middle of the work week.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High mixing heights and elevated dispersion indices for the next
couple of days will be the main concerns regarding fire weather.
Transport winds will be easterly at around 10 mph for Friday. Winds
will become more southeasterly for the weekend. We can expect
increasing chances for a wetting rain heading into the weekend. With
the showers and thunderstorms, erratic and gusty winds may be
possible.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Many river points across the Florida Big Bend will continue to
remain in action stage as water continues to flow into the Gulf
from recent rains. Fortunately, all local rivers have crested, and
are on the downward trend across the region.

Overall, WPC is forecasting around 1 inch or less of widespread
QPF for SE Alabama and the Florida panhandle over the next week.
For the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia, widespread rainfall
totals are expected to be around a quarter of an inch or less.
With scattered to isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
forecast through the upcoming week, locally higher totals will be
possible.

WPC has also introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
portions of the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama on Saturday for
the potential for localized flash flooding.




&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  93  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
Panama City   71  92  74  87 /   0  10  10  30
Dothan        66  90  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
Albany        64  89  67  88 /   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      67  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
Cross City    67  94  67  92 /   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  73  87  76  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Bunker