Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
206 FXUS62 KTAE 251929 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 329 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The severe weather risk has increased some this afternoon compared to earlier outlooks. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather for the rest of this afternoon into the early evening hours. The environment is characterized by SBCAPE values near 3000 j/kg range with deep layer shear values around 30 knots. An upper level vort max diving southeastward in the northwest flow aloft will aid in providing the lift needed to generate scattered thunderstorms. Fortunately, low level shear values are on the weak side, so the tornado risk looks to be below 2%. However, gusty winds and perhaps some hail could occur in this environment with some of the stronger storms, particularly the storms that can congeal into clusters. Activity should diminish after sunset this evening with lows dipping down around 70. On Sunday, a dry day is expected with westerly flow aloft and above average temperatures. After some patchy morning fog, skies are expected to clear with highs reaching into the 90s away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Another shortwave embedded in west to northwest flow moves across the forecast area during the day Monday, bringing another shot at showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area Monday afternoon. There will be ample mid- level dry air in place, resulting in DCAPE values near 1,000 J/kg in the afternoon overlaid with about 30-40 kt of deep layer shear. Of note are also steeper mid-level lapse rates noted on forecast soundings. The question is the coverage of storms. Regardless, if storms can get going Monday, then they`ll be in an environment supportive of strong to severe storms. Wet Microburst Severity Index values are quite high as well. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary severe hazards with frequent lightning possible in all storms. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) from roughly Panama City Beach to Lakeland northward. It`s not totally out of the realm of possibilities to see an expansion or upgrade to this risk in later outlooks, especially if the environment continues to look as favorable as it does. Outside of storms, it will be quite warm with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat index values Monday afternoon could approach or exceed 100 in spots. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Ridging off to our west continues to place our forecast area in northwest flow through Wednesday. However, the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday really depend on the placement of the shortwaves and a "cold" front. Looking at ensemble data, while we will be in northwest flow on Tuesday, we could in between shortwaves. This would mean our rain chances Tuesday could be more dominated by the sea breeze, confining our best rain chances to the southern and eastern half of the forecast area. However, the environment could still be supportive of strong to briefly severe storms Tuesday afternoon given good DCAPE values and deep-layer shear around 25 kt. Wednesday is even more tricky as the placement of a southward moving cold front makes all the difference. The GFS ensemble suite generally keeps the front near or over our Florida counties while the European ensemble suite drops the front south of our forecast area. The GFS suite would result in better rain chances for Wednesday while the European suite would be a dry forecast. Thus, rain chances are a very uncertain 20% across the southern half of the area Wednesday. Temperatures during this time period will be quite hot with middle 90s common. Tuesday in particular could be quite humid which may result in heat index values of 100-105, especially in the Florida counties. Behind the "cold" front, drier weather returns with highs falling back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, and they may congeal into clusters with gusty convective winds and possibly hail this afternoon and evening. The higher coverage will be along and north of I-10. Late tonight, the air mass will support development of patchy fog and low stratus with IFR conditions possible. Any fog or stratus that develops is expected to scatter out by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Generally light west to southwest winds continue through Tuesday with seas around 1 to 2 feet. The exception will be if storms over land this evening, Monday, and Tuesday make it to the waters, which could result in gusty winds. A cold front passes through the area Wednesday night, with light winds becoming more northwesterly for the end of the week. Seas will still generally remain 2 feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 On Sunday, the combination of southwest transport winds and moderately high mixing heights will lead to high dispersions during the afternoon across much of southwest Georgia and portions of southeast Alabama. High dispersions are possible again on Monday and Tuesday. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The flood wave continues down the Withlacoochee River with the river falling at Quitman and beginning to fall at Pinetta. These forecast points should fall below flood stage in about the next 24 to 30 hours. Farther downstream along the Suwannee, the river at Ellaville continues to trend slightly lower than forecast, which affects downstream locations. Thus, forecasts from Luraville downstream have generally trended downward, and it`ll be seen whether or not these points reach flood stage over the next 3 to 6 days. The additional rainfall during the next several days is not forecast to contribute much more to the river flooding. Some locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms, which could cause brief nuisance flooding, but flash flood concerns are fairly low. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 93 72 92 / 30 0 0 20 Panama City 75 86 76 86 / 10 0 0 10 Dothan 72 91 73 90 / 30 0 0 40 Albany 72 92 71 91 / 10 0 0 50 Valdosta 72 94 71 93 / 20 0 0 30 Cross City 71 91 69 90 / 20 0 0 10 Apalachicola 75 85 76 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Young