938
FXUS62 KTAE 040512
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
112 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
The 00z KTAE sounding reveals a seasonably moist environment for
June with a PWAT of 1.72 inches and light steering flow. Remaining
convection will diminish this evening with overnight lows ranging
from the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A fairly summerlike pattern is expected through the near term with
the Bermuda high keeping onshore flow in place over the area. Deep
layer moisture overhead along with fairly weak steering flow will
keep a locally heavy rainfall threat in place Tuesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings also could indicate a gusty wind threat with the
strongest storms. Temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to low
70s in the morning before climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s in
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The short-term synoptic pattern is forecast to consist of a narrow
upper ridge over the Eastern Seaboard with an upstream longwave
trough trekking through the Midwest and stout ridge anchored
across the Desert SW. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will continue to
pump moist south to southwest low-level flow, resulting in
hot/muggy conditions and mainly diurnal convection. Forecast high
temperatures are low 90s away from the coast and lows in the low
70s. For Wednesday, the greatest rain chances focus along the I-75
corridor where the richer moisture resides, but the seabreeze
should provide an additional forcing mechanism for initiation near
the coast.

By Wednesday night, the aforementioned trough`s position around the
Great Lakes places our region under northwest flow aloft, which when
combined with a trailing impulse could send a Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS). The GFS, an often reliable model for MCS`, has one
entering the Wiregrass early Thursday morning. If this solution
verifies, then we may be looking at a severe weather/heavy rain
threat. For now, confidence is not high enough to introduce any
risks, but trends could change in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Active weather appears likely on Thursday as the potential MCS,
remnant outflow boundary, and/or associated front pushes through the
service area. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected before
activity shifts closer to the coast and offshore heading into the
weekend. By Saturday, the longwave trough discussed in the short-
term period should be east of the Great Lakes with drier northerly
flow filtering in. This pattern shift should effectively put a lid
on convection. Come next week, we are looking at a return to a more
typical summertime seabreeze pattern.

High temperatures in the 90s will be common while lows drop to the
low 70s. However, this weekend`s inland minimums are likely to read
in the mid/upper 60s (especially north of the FL state line) thanks
to a relatively drier post-frontal airmass presiding over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours.
Some low stratus and/or patchy fog may develop near DHN, ECP, and
ABY, which could lead to IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys. Have
included this possibility in a TEMPO. Scattered TSRA will develop
in the afternoon, starting near ECP/TLH, then spreading inland.
By 01z, most TSRA will be out of the area. Generally light south
to southwest winds expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting a SE wind around 8 kts with 2-ft
seas and a dominant period of 6-7 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions
prevail outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The best convective potential is Thursday through Friday night.
South to southwest winds at 10 knots or less are forecast, then
turn west late week, and become northwesterly this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A summertime pattern is expected over the next several days with
daily showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons. Storms could
produce gusty and erratic winds along with isolated heavy rainfall.
Dispersions are forecast to be high Wednesday and Thursday with
fairly high mixing heights and increasing southwesterly to westerly
transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop along the coast
and move slowly inland each day. Otherwise, there are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several
days. The only exceptions can be locally heavy rain from strong
and/or slow-moving thunderstorms capable of isolated nuisance
flooding in low-lying, urban, or poor drainage areas. In terms of
rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but
levels continue to drop.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  70  92  72 /  40  10  30  10
Panama City   87  73  87  76 /  30  10  20  20
Dothan        90  69  91  71 /  40  10  30  30
Albany        90  70  91  71 /  40  30  30  20
Valdosta      92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  10
Cross City    92  69  93  71 /  30  30  30  10
Apalachicola  85  74  86  76 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3