747
FXUS62 KTAE 252325
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
725 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The severe weather risk has increased some this afternoon compared
to earlier outlooks. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk of severe
weather for the rest of this afternoon into the early evening hours.
The environment is characterized by SBCAPE values near 3000 j/kg
range with deep layer shear values around 30 knots. An upper level
vort max diving southeastward in the northwest flow aloft will aid
in providing the lift needed to generate scattered thunderstorms.
Fortunately, low level shear values are on the weak side, so the
tornado risk looks to be below 2%. However, gusty winds and perhaps
some hail could occur in this environment with some of the stronger
storms, particularly the storms that can congeal into clusters.
Activity should diminish after sunset this evening with lows dipping
down around 70.

On Sunday, a dry day is expected with westerly flow aloft and above
average temperatures. After some patchy morning fog, skies are
expected to clear with highs reaching into the 90s away from the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Another shortwave embedded in west to northwest flow moves across
the forecast area during the day Monday, bringing another shot at
showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area Monday afternoon.
There will be ample mid- level dry air in place, resulting in
DCAPE values near 1,000 J/kg in the afternoon overlaid with about
30-40 kt of deep layer shear. Of note are also steeper mid-level
lapse rates noted on forecast soundings. The question is the
coverage of storms. Regardless, if storms can get going Monday,
then they`ll be in an environment supportive of strong to severe
storms. Wet Microburst Severity Index values are quite high as
well. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary severe
hazards with frequent lightning possible in all storms. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1
of 5) from roughly Panama City Beach to Lakeland northward. It`s
not totally out of the realm of possibilities to see an expansion
or upgrade to this risk in later outlooks, especially if the
environment continues to look as favorable as it does.

Outside of storms, it will be quite warm with highs in the lower
90s and lows in the 70s. Heat index values Monday afternoon could
approach or exceed 100 in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Ridging off to our west continues to place our forecast area in
northwest flow through Wednesday. However, the forecast for
Tuesday and Wednesday really depend on the placement of the
shortwaves and a "cold" front. Looking at ensemble data, while we
will be in northwest flow on Tuesday, we could in between
shortwaves. This would mean our rain chances Tuesday could be more
dominated by the sea breeze, confining our best rain chances to
the southern and eastern half of the forecast area. However, the
environment could still be supportive of strong to briefly severe
storms Tuesday afternoon given good DCAPE values and deep-layer shear
around 25 kt.

Wednesday is even more tricky as the placement of a southward
moving cold front makes all the difference. The GFS ensemble suite
generally keeps the front near or over our Florida counties while
the European ensemble suite drops the front south of our forecast
area. The GFS suite would result in better rain chances for
Wednesday while the European suite would be a dry forecast. Thus,
rain chances are a very uncertain 20% across the southern half of
the area Wednesday. Temperatures during this time period will be
quite hot with middle 90s common. Tuesday in particular could be
quite humid which may result in heat index values of 100-105,
especially in the Florida counties.

Behind the "cold" front, drier weather returns with highs falling
back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the middle 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

It is possible for a couple of stray showers to develop over the
next hour yet, they should be light and chances for thunder at
this point is NIL. We will have light to calm winds tonight;
however, we remain in a similar pattern as the past few nights
with low stratus and patchy fog possible during the overnight and
predawn hours, affecting all terminals. VFR cigs will return by
mid- morning Sunday and clearing skies across all terminals
through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Generally light west to southwest winds continue through Tuesday
with seas around 1 to 2 feet. The exception will be if storms over
land this evening, Monday, and Tuesday make it to the waters,
which could result in gusty winds. A cold front passes through the
area Wednesday night, with light winds becoming more
northwesterly for the end of the week. Seas will still generally
remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

On Sunday, the combination of southwest transport winds and
moderately high mixing heights will lead to high dispersions during
the afternoon across much of southwest Georgia and portions of
southeast Alabama. High dispersions are possible again on Monday and
Tuesday. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above
critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The flood wave continues down the Withlacoochee River with the
river falling at Quitman and beginning to fall at Pinetta. These
forecast points should fall below flood stage in about the next 24
to 30 hours. Farther downstream along the Suwannee, the river at
Ellaville continues to trend slightly lower than forecast, which
affects downstream locations. Thus, forecasts from Luraville
downstream have generally trended downward, and it`ll be seen
whether or not these points reach flood stage over the next 3 to 6
days.

The additional rainfall during the next several days is not
forecast to contribute much more to the river flooding. Some
locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms, which could
cause brief nuisance flooding, but flash flood concerns are fairly
low.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  93  72  92 /  30   0   0  20
Panama City   75  86  76  86 /  10   0   0  10
Dothan        72  91  73  90 /  30   0   0  40
Albany        72  92  71  91 /  10   0   0  50
Valdosta      72  94  71  93 /  20   0   0  30
Cross City    71  91  69  90 /  20   0   0  10
Apalachicola  75  85  76  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Young