Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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501 FXUS62 KTAE 311506 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1106 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Forecast updates are not needed this morning, with no change in expectations through at least tonight. There will be a huge 12,000-acre burn on the Apalachicola National Forest today in the Bradley Bay Wilderness of western Wakulla County. With prevailing east-southeast winds today, expect downwind smoke and air quality impacts to develop over Liberty and Calhoun Counties. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Easterly winds are expected to become more southeasterly through tonight with a weak stationary front draped across the northeastern portions of the area. Fairly zonal flow is expected aloft with a tiny bit of ridging possibly suppressing any shower and thunderstorm development over the eastern Big Bend and GA. A few showers and storms may be able to develop across the FL Panhandle along the seabreeze this afternoon. If storms are able to develop, forecast soundings show an inverted V and DCAPE values around 800-900 J/kg, which indicate a potential gusty wind threat. Highs this afternoon are forecast in the upper 80s north of the stationary front to the mid 90s across Florida. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Saturday`s forecast is kind of a mess, meaning it`s highly dependent on where outflow boundaries set up. An approaching shortwave from the lower Mississippi Valley will lift northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, ongoing MCSs off to our west may send outflow boundaries toward our area or just west. These boundaries in concert with the approaching shortwave will be the focus for renewed thunderstorm development. The evolution of the storms on Saturday is highly uncertain given the placement of these mesoscale features. Regardless, it appears the better chance for rain Saturday will be over the Central Time Zone counties, decreasing farther to the east. Some of the storms Saturday could be strong to possibly severe with damaging winds being the primary severe hazard. Instability will be sufficient with about 20-30 kt deep layer shear (which is sufficient for summer-like severe setups). Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the Central Time Zone counties in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for Saturday. Additionally, PWATs will climb into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, providing ample moisture for a localized flash flood threat in the heavier downpours. Highs will be cloud- cooled with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Another shortwave approaches on Sunday, bringing another day of good rain chances to the area, especially over western parts of the forecast area. The environment doesn`t appear as favorable for strong storms, but sufficient moisture will remain in place for some efficient rain producers. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 We`ll remain in a pattern of northwesterly flow with some weak shortwaves passing near our area. With abundant moisture remaining in place, daily rain chances will remain around 20 to 30% through the end of the period. With the lower rain chances, highs will climb back to the lower to middle 90s through the week. A cold front will approach the area toward the end of the week, which could help boost rain chances later in the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 A few showers and storms will be possible along the seabreeze this afternoon, with the best chances across the FL Panhandle near KECP. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Easterly winds will become southeasterly this afternoon and evening. A surge of strong nocturnal east to southeast breezes will spread across the waters late this evening and overnight. Seas will respond by building to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas will decrease Saturday afternoon then become light by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times late tonight through Sunday over the northeast Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Rain chances begin to increase today into Saturday as moisture slowly returns to the area. High dispersions will be possible this afternoon due to very high mixing heights and slightly breezy transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop near the coast each afternoon before moving inland. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Some locally downpours are possible in the storms through the weekend. While widespread totals over the next 3 days generally will be around 0.5 to 1 inch over the western areas, tapering farther east, localized totals in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama could be as much as 2 to 4 inches. If these higher-end amounts materialize, then some localized nuisance flooding could occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined parts of southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). Regardless, impacts of local rivers should be minimal. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 88 69 87 / 10 20 10 40 Panama City 75 85 72 85 / 20 40 20 40 Dothan 69 85 68 86 / 10 40 20 50 Albany 67 87 67 86 / 0 10 10 40 Valdosta 66 89 67 88 / 0 10 10 30 Cross City 66 91 67 90 / 10 10 10 20 Apalachicola 77 84 74 84 / 10 30 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765- 770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Young