Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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573 FXUS62 KTAE 041028 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 628 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A little bit more mid-level ridging is expected today. However, this does put our area in the dreaded "northwest flow" regime, and wouldn`t you know it, another shortwave will try to impact our area into tonight. Before the shortwave arrives, sea breeze thunderstorms will get going again late this morning closer to the coast, then gradually move inland during the afternoon. There may be a little enhancement from from any outflow boundary coming from the decaying MCS over Mississippi this morning. The environment looks potentially a little more potent than recent days. DCAPE is around 800-1000 J/kg on various model forecast soundings, and there`s about 25-30 kt of deep layer shear. Thus, can`t rule out a couple strong to severe storms this afternoon with the primary hazards being strong gusty winds, some hail, and frequent lightning. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tonight`s forecast is a bit tricky. The afternoon pop-up storms will be on the downward swing. But, given the shortwave embedded within the northwest flow, there could be an MCS ongoing across the lower Mississippi Valley late in the afternoon. As the shortwave moves east to southeast, this MCS will likely make an attempt at approaching our area late this evening or overnight, possibly decaying or possibly staying together. If it does manage to maintain itself, then wouldn`t rule out a few strong to severe storms again tonight, mainly in the western areas. However, much of the guidance did not even paint PoPs in the forecast for tonight. Hi-res guidance has struggled immensely with placement and strength of MCSs over the last several days. Thus, the forecast for tonight is a low- confidence forecast based solely on pattern recognition and some hi- res guidance. Have introduced 20-30% rain chances across southeast AL and the FL Panhandle late tonight. Wouldn`t be surprised if this changes one way or the other, but as mentioned, confidence is low. Regardless, some patchy fog is possible tonight with lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Fairly zonal flow aloft Wednesday while the western extent of the western Atlantic surface high remains through much of the southeast US keeping onshore south to southwest winds going. Seabreeze activity appears to favor our eastern and southeastern counties in the afternoon with rain chances of 50-60%. Looking upstream there will be a shortwave trough advancing into Alabama Wednesday night then into our area Thursday. This trough will be supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves by then northwesterly flow sets up heading into Thursday night. Given the available moisture and mid level support with the incoming trough, have increased rain chances Thursday to 50-70% with highest confidence north of I10. Widespread low 90s for highs expected for Wednesday but did lower highs Thursday based on recent guidance and expected storms/cloud cover through our Alabama/Georgia counties west of I75 and north of I10 where upper 80s will reside and low 90s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will allow a cold front to sweep through the CWA Friday. Dry air behind the frontal passage will temporarily squash rain chances to the Gulf waters and southeast Big Bend Saturday. Our region will remain in northwest flow into early next week situated between ridging to the west and troughing to our northeast. Weak impulses in northwest flow may allow isolated storms to develop Sunday and another front to make a run towards the southeast US Monday, though confidence is low at this stage. During this period there may be a few upper 90s recorded for highs (Friday ahead of the front in our Florida counties and Sunday/Monday in the Florida Big Bend). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Some patchy fog has developed near TLH so far, but has been transient. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at ECP, DHN, and ABY through 13z between the patches of mid and high level clouds. Otherwise, TSRA is expected to develop around 17-18z near ECP and TLH, then spread inland through the afternoon. Gusty winds are possible with some storms. TSRA will diminish quickly after sunset. Some patchy fog is possible again tonight, but confidence in timing and categorical changes is too low for inclusion. Additionally, another round of SHRA/TSRA could move in overnight to DHN and ECP, but confidence is also too low for inclusion at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Weak ridging will keep onshore flow going with favorable boating conditions. A weak cold front will then drop into the coastal waters late this week clocking winds first to the west Thursday then northwesterly into Saturday. This will also be the time frame of better thunderstorm chances through the Gulf waters as well. Winds will then clock back around to onshore the latter half of the weekend. Wave heights through the period will generally be two feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Light southeasterly winds this morning will become southwesterly this afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland. This combined with mixing heights around 4,500-6,500 feet will result in good dispersions today. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible today, starting in the Florida zones in the late morning and early afternoon, then moving inland during the afternoon and early evening. Some storms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning. A similar pattern is expected Wednesday, but dispersions may be high in south Georgia. Higher rain chances are expected Thursday with an increase in primarily westerly winds. The Big Bend and I-75 corridor will likely see high dispersions before storms arrive. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several days. The only exceptions can be locally heavy rain from strong and/or slow-moving thunderstorms capable of isolated nuisance flooding in low-lying, urban, or poor drainage areas. In terms of rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but levels continue to drop. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 90 71 92 71 / 50 10 50 20 Panama City 86 75 87 75 / 30 10 30 20 Dothan 89 70 91 71 / 50 20 40 30 Albany 90 71 92 71 / 50 40 40 30 Valdosta 91 71 93 71 / 50 40 50 20 Cross City 91 70 93 70 / 40 20 60 30 Apalachicola 85 76 86 75 / 30 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Young MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...IG3