422
FXUS62 KTAE 241719
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

No updates made to the forecast for this morning. A few passing
showers have cleared the area and wind gusts that moved in behind
them have subsided as well. Isolated showers/storms are still
forecast to develop later this afternoon with the highest
probabilities across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Fog through late this morning will be most prevalent in the FL
Counties, where it may be locally dense around sunrise. The fog
will abate by around 9 AM ET. Our attention turns to a potential
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms roughly northwest of an
Albany to Defuniak Springs line. A shortwave in the northwest
flow aloft will in lift with PWATs across the aforementioned area
rising to ~1.5 inches. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two
given Bulk Shear approaching 40 kts and SB CAPE around 1-1.5k
J/kg this evening. The main concern is gusty winds given high
DCAPE values, although activity will be limited by dry air aloft.

Highs today in the upper 80s closer to the coast to lower 90s
inland. Tonight another round of fog is likely, especially from
Southeast AL into the I-10 corridor of FL. Lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

The main concerns during the Memorial Day Weekend is the potential
for severe weather on Saturday and above average temperatures
leading to heat stress. On Saturday, a complex of storms could
propagate southeastward into the region during the afternoon and
evening hours. Seasonably high deep layer shear around 45 knots
and SB CAPE around 2k J/kg will lead to an environment favorable
for isolated damaging wind gusts. SPC has outlooked much of the
region from the I-10 corridor northward in a Marginal Risk of
severe weather. In addition, isolated large hail is also possible.
We will refine the threats and timing as the event draws closer.
Those with outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the forecast
and adjust accordingly.

There will be a return to dry weather on Sunday, so that looks
to be the pick of the weekend for outdoor plans. With above
average temperatures in the 90s, the Apparent Temperature/Heat
Index will approach 100 degrees at times, especially in the
FL counties, increasing heat stress for those outdoors that do
not take proper precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

The main concern is the potential for another round of severe
weather early next week. A cold front will approach on Monday and
move through the region Monday night into Tuesday. There looks
to be sufficient instability and shear for at least strong
thunderstorms in the late Monday into Tuesday time frame. After
the front moves through, dry weather is expected midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the afternoon and
into the evening hours. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible
this evening, with the best chance of a thunderstorm being near
DHN. The chance of low stratus and reduced visibility increases
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Areas of IFR to LIFR
ceilings are expected between 08Z and 14Z. Some uncertainty exists
regarding whether these lower ceilings will occur at ABY. Any low
ceilings and patchy fog should lift by the 14Z to 15Z time frame
tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Tranquil boating conditions to start the Memorial Day Weekend,
with light southerly winds and wave heights less than 2 feet
through Sunday. The only exception could be strong storms
mainly north of the waters on Saturday afternoon and evening,
which could lead to locally higher winds and seas. A cold front
will approach the waters on Monday with southwest winds
increasing. The cold front will move through the waters Monday
night into Tuesday with winds clocking around to the Northwest,
and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. On Monday and Tuesday,
wave heights could approach 3 feet offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

The combination of Southwest transport winds around 10 to 15 mph
and mixing heights of 5,000 to 6,000 feet will lead to high
dispersions this afternoon across much of Southeast Alabama and
Southwest Georgia. On Saturday, there is the potential for
thunderstorms to produce strong, gusty winds during the afternoon
and evening. Some storms from the I-10 corridor northward could
be severe. Temperatures will be above average, and when factoring
in humidity, the Apparent Temperature/Heat Index will be in the
mid to upper 90s across much of the region through this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee
river basins continue to remain in minor flood as they drain from
last weeks storms. Some points along the Ochlockonee could fall
below flood stage this morning. With the Withlacoochee slowly
draining into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor
flooding on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall,
outside of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood in
the next week, no other river basins are expected to reach flood
stage this week.

Widespread rainfall totals over the next 7 days will generally
remain around 0.5 inches or less, with portions of SE Alabama
potentially reaching 1 inch of QPF in the next week. This amount
of rainfall is hydrologically insignificant, and will not lead to
additional riverine flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  92  72  93 /   0  20   0   0
Panama City   75  87  74  86 /  10  10  10   0
Dothan        71  91  72  92 /  20  30  20   0
Albany        71  90  72  92 /  20  30  20  10
Valdosta      70  92  72  94 /  10  30   0  10
Cross City    69  90  71  92 /   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  75  86  75  85 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HGX/Self