350
FXUS62 KTAE 081544
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1144 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The forecast is on track, updates don`t appear to be necessary
this morning. Temps have already climbed into the mid 90s within
the city of Tallahassee, remember to stay hydrated.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to settle into the region today,
which will make for a generally cloudless day areawide. Across the
mid and upper levels, upper level ridging will be building into the
southeast from the west, which will lead to 590 plus dam 500 mb
heights. These 500 mb heights will allow for hot temperatures once
again across the region today. Expect upper 90s across the Florida
Big Bend, with highs approaching near 100 by the afternoon. Portions
of SW Georgia and SE Alabama are expected to see high temperatures
in the low to mid 90s, while the Florida Panhandle will likely see
highs in the mid 90s. Fortunately, enough dry air has settled over
the region, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s by this
afternoon that heat index values are not expected to be much higher
than the actual temperatures forecast for today. Lows overnight
tonight look to generally fall into the upper 60s to low 70s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Dry and hot conditions will round out the weekend on Sunday as an
weakening upper level ridge and mostly dry northwest mid-level
flow prevail. Temperatures will hit the upper 90s with 100
degrees being possible in some areas. In the absence of any
significant low-level moisture, we should avoid seeing any heat
indices that reach advisory levels, but heat indices will still
climb into the low 100s and likely be one of the hottest days of
the year so far.

As the upper level ridge continues weakening and is replaced by an
approaching upper level trough and southward moving frontal
boundary, we`ll see temperatures cool off slightly and see a
return to isolated/scattered showers and storms on Monday. Raised
POPs compared to what we had yesterday, but still went slightly
lower than the NBM given recent high biases in coverage from the
NBM. Did note that ensemble support has increased for storm
coverage on Monday so did not blend too far away from the NBM as
we did in past forecasts. With a deeply mixed boundary layer, an
isolated strong wind gust can`t be ruled out in storms on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upper level through and frontal system push through Tuesday and
we`ll likely see lower rain chances as drier mid-level air behind
the trough moves in and a weak upper level ridge builds in.

While uncertainty still remains rather large as to how wet
conditions will be, we remain confident that a wetter than normal
pattern will begin to emerge sometime next week as deep tropical
moisture advects northwards into the Florida Peninsula and
northern Gulf Coast. While rain chances will still follow their
usual summertime diurnal cycles, the northward transport of deep
tropical moisture and the upper level support of a potential cut
off low across the central Gulf of Mexico would set the stage for
a very wet couple of afternoons next week.

While too far to determine specifics, the presence of the deep
tropical moisture could bring localized flooding concerns late
next week. Any tropical development is not overlay favorable with
model ensemble support for weak tropical development still
remaining very low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly to northerly winds at
around 5-10 mph or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Favorable boating conditions expected this weekend with light
winds of 10 mph or less and seas around 1 foot expected. No rain
is expected through the weekend but shower and storm chances
return by Monday afternoon, with greater chances likely much of
next week. Winds and seas will gradually tick upwards as stronger
southerly flow develops and it`s possible cautionary/advisory
conditions overspread marine waters by the middle to latter part
of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Light transport winds around 5-10 mph will remain out of the
north/northeast through the mid morning hours before becoming
westerly by the afternoon and evening. With hot temperatures
expected again today with deep layer mixing, mixing heights are
forecast to top out around 5500 to near 7000 ft. With deep layer
mixing expected combined with very dry air in place over the region
in the wake of the frontal passage yesterday, minimum RH values will
likely drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.
Overall, there are no fire weather concerns today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Dry conditions will continue through the weekend with no riverine
concerns expected for at least the next few days. A wetter pattern
will likely begin to emerge next week, but specifics on where the
heaviest rain could fall still remain highly uncertain. With deep
tropical moisture moving north, it`s possible some riverine
basins could develop new flooding concerns next week and into the
following week depending on where the heaviest rains fall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   91  74  90  77 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        92  68  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        93  68  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      95  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    95  72  94  73 /  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  89  75  89  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs