999
FXUS62 KTAE 100635
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
235 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The main concern for today centers around a marginal risk of severe
weather this afternoon across a large portion of the area from
Tallahassee northward. A weak surface frontal boundary will sag
southward into the area as an upper level trough digs southward.
Ample instability will be in place, and deep layer shear values will
be on the high side for summer time in our area given the stronger
upper level flow. In addition, some mid-level dry air will enhance
DCAPE values this afternoon, setting the stage for gusty winds with
any storms that develop. There appears to be enough forcing for at
least scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Thus, a
marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) is in place over most
of the area this afternoon with a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
clipping the northeast corner of the forecast area. Highs today will
be quite warm ahead of the weak boundary, reaching well into the 90s
for most area, and mid to upper 90s are expected around Tallahassee.
Storms will gradually diminish after sunset, although they may
linger for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows will generally
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Trough axis will be east of the region by Tuesday as drier mid-
level filters into the forecast area from the west and northwest.
Rain chances should be lower on Tuesday compared to Monday with
the only rain chances likely to be confined in the southeast Big
Bend where the better low-level moisture and seabreeze convergence
with the weak frontal boundary will be in play. An isolated
shower or storm can`t be ruled out across the remainder of the
Big Bend and Panhandle with chances around 10 to 20%.

Slightly better moisture and perhaps the weak influence of a mid-
level trough will allow higher rain chances on Wednesday, but
even then significant deep-layer moisture appears to be lacking so
rain chances will again only be isolated/scattered with the
higher chances across the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The extended forecast through the end of the week and the upcoming
weekend continues to remain highly uncertain. However, recent
ensemble guidance has started to catch on to the idea that the
onset of deeper tropical moisture might take longer to arrive into
the forecast area so rain chances for Thursday and Friday have
gone down and forecast highs have trended upwards. Most of these
reductions in rain chances have to do with the upper level low
that will cut off across the Gulf. Much of the guidance recently
has been much further east and weaker with this cutoff low while
trending slightly stronger with a mid-level ridge across the Dixie
Alley in Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana. This upper level
pattern is likely to keep the deep tropical moisture shunted to
the east. While conditions will not be bone dry, thanks to weak
disturbances moving through the ridge, the widespread soaker that
appeared to move in at the end of the week now seems to reflect
more of a typical summertime pattern, and possibly drier, if
recent forecast trends hold.

While the chance for a widespread heavy rain event has reduced,
we`ll still need to keep an eye on how the pattern unfolds through
the week as there are still several ensemble member solutions that
could bring a return to heavy rain chances as the upper level
ridge weakens and moves east, This could open the door for the
deep-layer tropical moisture to move north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. For this
afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop with the most likely areas to see storms around DHN and ABY.
Gusty winds are possible with these storms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail outside of storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Light winds and seas should continue into the week with slowly
increasing chances for showers and storms through the week. A
round of strong storms across inland areas could move offshore in
the afternoon or evening bringing localized gusty winds to marine
areas. Potential tropical moisture moving in from the south
through the week appears to not be as widespread, and potential
increased southerly swell from this system has lowered as well.
Still, an increase in winds and seas is likely later in the week
which will likely bring periods of cautionary level conditions and
possibly advisory level depending on how forecasts trend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High mixing heights will contribute to high dispersions this
afternoon, mainly across the Florida big bend and south-central
Georgia. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected
with gusty winds near storms. Some drier air is expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday, but an increase in tropical moisture is expected
towards the end of the week and weekend with minimal fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Widespread rainfall amounts through the week have trended down as
the heaviest forecast rainfall amounts of shifted south and east.
Current forecast amounts are not likely to bring any riverine
concerns through the next 5 to 7 days. There is still a potential
for heavy rain into the upcoming weekend and early next week, but
the forecast remains complicated and uncertain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  73  93  72 /  30  40  30  20
Panama City   89  74  91  73 /  30  40  20  20
Dothan        93  70  89  68 /  50  30  10  10
Albany        93  71  91  68 /  50  30  10  10
Valdosta      95  72  92  70 /  40  50  30  20
Cross City    93  73  93  72 /  10  20  50  40
Apalachicola  89  77  88  76 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs