Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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702 FXUS62 KTAE 090925 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 525 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 High pressure will remain in control through Sunday. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry weather. While highs will be well above normal in the middle and upper 90s, low to mid-level northwest flow will maintain a more continental air mass, with an unseasonably dry air mass away from the coast (especially north of I-10). So, apparent temps/heat index will not stray far from the actual temperatures. Some patchy fog is possible tonight in the FL counties, thanks to a bit more moisture from the inland penetration of the seabreeze. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Forecasts have trended a little wetter for Monday afternoon as the combination of a weakening frontal boundary, seabreeze convergence, and the upper level support of a passing trough combine to produced scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Monday. Rain chances will likely be greatest along the front, but the low-mid level northwesterly flow will likely aid in uplift as the seabreeze develops in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will again be hot, but the increased cloudiness and higher rain chances should keep us from reaching the upper 90s across Georgia and Alabama, but whether we hit the upper 90s in Florida will be depend how quickly and how widespread the coverage of storms is. For Tuesday, rain chances have come down as there is greater confidence in drier mid-level air moving in from the west and northwest behind the trough as well as a shortwave ridge building in to the region. Did leave some rain chances for the the southeast Big Bend and southern Georgia forecast areas as low- level moisture lingers. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The extended forecast from Wednesday onwards continues to remain very uncertain for the area, moreso than usual. Most of the uncertainty revolves around how quickly, and even if, deep-layer tropical moisture can work its way into the northern Gulf and into the forecast area during the middle to latter part of the upcoming week. Recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended down for rainfall amounts across the area late in the week and possibly into the weekend. With the active northern stream retreating northwards the mid-upper level pattern looks to become tricky as steering currents weaken in the sub-tropics, especially with respect to a potential cut-off low across the Gulf of Mexico. Past guidance has been more aggressive in cutting off this upper level low, which allowed the tropical moisture to advect northwards more quickly, but recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has become less confident in this developing as quickly so it`s possible forecast for Wed/Thurs will trend drier. However, guidance still suggest into the end the week and upcoming weekend that deeper tropical moisture could lift back north so rain chances in the long-term remain above normal. It should still be noted that forecast confidence in the extended period remains below normal and a heavy rain threat, or just a more favorable summertime pattern, are all still on the table at this point. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions look to prevail through the entire TAF period. Variable to calm winds out of the northwest early in the TAF period will eventually clock around to the west/southwest by the mid- morning hours, while also increasing to around 5-10 knots throughout the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Quiet marine conditions continue through today and into Monday with light west and northwesterly winds likely and seas around 1 foot. A weakening frontal boundary will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. These rain chances continue into the middle of the week with chances greatest in the overnight hours. Increasing tropical moisture and southerly swell/winds will possibly bring cautionary/advisory level conditions by the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Transport winds at around 5-10 mph will primarily be out of the west today across the entire region. With high pressure still fixed over the region, mixing heights will once again be around 6000-6500ft areawide. This will generally lead to high dispersions; however, headline level dispersions are not expected except for areas along and east of the I-75 corridor. With deep layer mixing forecast combined with continued dry air entrenched over the region, expect minimum RH values to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon across the region. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns today outside of high dispersions in the aforementioned areas. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Riverine flooding concerns aren`t expected through the next 5 days, but some riverine concerns are possible later this week and into the weekend as we potentially see heavy rain as deep-layer tropical moisture moves northwards. However, confidence on where/if this heavy rainfall develops still remains highly uncertain. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 74 96 73 / 0 0 40 30 Panama City 90 77 89 74 / 0 0 40 30 Dothan 95 73 93 69 / 0 0 40 20 Albany 96 74 93 69 / 0 0 50 30 Valdosta 96 74 96 71 / 0 0 40 40 Cross City 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 30 40 Apalachicola 90 77 90 76 / 0 0 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Dobbs