154
FXUS62 KTAE 122304
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
704 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal with lows in the
lower to middle 70s tonight and highs in the middle 90s Thursday
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. Locally heavy rain is a
concern within any of the showers/storms due to high precipitable
water values (PWATs); gusty winds are also possible within any of
the stronger storms along with an outside chance at some hail.

Looking aloft, the mid-level water vapor imagery on GOES-16 shows a
weak H5 shortwave trudging through the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. That will be near, if not over, the region Thursday
afternoon and help instigate isolated to scattered showers and
storms. Gusty winds are possible within the stronger storms due to
DCAPE values between 700 to 900 J/kg. Hail could also be possible
due to mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km along with the
freezing levels forecast to drop below 15k feet Thursday afternoon.

As mentioned above, there is the potential for locally heavy rain
within any of the showers or storms. That is due to PWATs generally
between 1.7" to nearly 2", which would be above the 75th percentile
for mid-June. Also, steering flow is very weak, if not non-existent,
the next couple of afternoons. This means any showers and storms
will flare up and rain themselves out in nearly the same place,
similar to what happened Tuesday afternoon. If any one of the
showers or storms develop over more urban areas, it could lead to
localized street flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The combination of a lingering SW-NE trough axis slowly exiting the
Eastern Seaboard and slugs of Gulf tropical moisture focuses our
highest rain chances (40-60%) in the Big Bend seabreeze zone Friday
afternoon to offshore heading into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a
stout mid-level ridge builds from the west and set the stage for
a very hot next 3 days. Widespread inland highs in the upper 90s
are forecast with a few locations possibly hitting 100 degrees!
Peak heat indices look to range from about 101-105. Although those
values are below local advisory criteria, these hot conditions
can still be impactful to sensitive populations or those who are
outdoors, so please plan accordingly. Overnight low 70s for
minimum temperatures won`t provide much relief either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Hazardous heat will be the main story this weekend as the
aforementioned ridge overtakes the Eastern US. Global models depict
mid-level heights of 591 dm, which exceeds the daily 90th
percentile, per SPC sounding climatology for KTLH. For Saturday, we
are forecasting 100 degrees for Dothan/Albany/Valdosta with 101
at Tallahassee. Ironically enough, these values are a few degrees
less than the daily record highs for June 15th from the brutal
2011 period. Toss in some humidity and we are looking at heat
indices ranging from about 103-110, which brings Heat Advisory
potential into play, especially over parts of our FL counties.

Sunday appears slightly less hot as the ridge pivots NE with
forecast highs in the mid/upper 90s, but solid triple-digit heat
indices are still expected. Better moisture off the Gulf and
Atlantic also should provide some relief via cloud cover/increased
rain chances in response to a developing easterly flow regime.

By Monday, easterly flow becomes more brisk when a pressure gradient
tightens between the Bermuda High and a potentially developing
tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern yields
daily chances for showers/thunderstorms driven by a robust seabreeze
activity. The trade off is relatively cooler temperatures close to
the low/mid 90s for highs, though lows remain in the sultry low/mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
sunset this evening. Overnight, winds will be light to calm and
variable. VFR cigs are expected tomorrow with a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, affecting mainly the ECP and
TLH terminals during the afternoon hours. Expect the seabreeze to
move into the region with the ECP terminal expecting a wind shift
when it passes through later in the afternoon. Lowered vsbys will
be possible in heavier thunderstorms with the potential for gusty
winds and some hail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of
maritime convection with dominant wave periods of 6 to 7 seconds.
By Monday, exercise caution easterly flow develops and likely
increases to or near advisory levels later next week as the pressure
gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from
southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical
moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Warm to hot temperatures continue through the weekend and into next
week. Relative humidity values will generally range between 35 to 45
percent each afternoon. A slight increase in transport winds across
southwest Georgia will lead to higher dispersion across the Georgia
districts Thursday and Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are possible the next couple of days with gusty and erratic
wind near storms.

While widespread fog is not anticipated, there is the potential for
patchy fog the next couple of mornings, especially across the
southeast Florida Big Bend and areas along I-75 in Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several
days. Heavy downpours from strong and/or slow-moving thunderstorms
could cause some localized runoff issues, particularly for urban,
low-lying, or poor-drainage areas. In terms of rivers, Rock
Bluff/Wilcox/Manatee Springs from the Suwannee basins are nearly
below action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  95  73  98 /  40  40  10  40
Panama City   76  91  75  91 /  30  60  20  30
Dothan        73  93  72  98 /  10  30  10  10
Albany        72  94  71  99 /  20  20   0  10
Valdosta      72  93  71  97 /  20  20  20  20
Cross City    72  94  71  96 /  50  60  40  60
Apalachicola  77  89  76  92 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...IG3