Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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974 FXUS62 KTAE 250539 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 139 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Forecast is on track. Only minor updates have been made. It is possible for a few light showers in our Alabama counties this evening but, PoPs remain around 20%. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the evening hours. The best chance of seeing a thunderstorm will be in our Alabama and Georgia counties. Temperatures through the rest of the afternoon are expected to be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points generally in the mid/upper 60s inland, low 70s at the coast. These values equate to heat indexes in the 91 to 96 degree range. Overnight lows tonight will average in the low 70s inland, mid 70s near the coast. Low clouds and patchy fog may develop over some areas overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A building mid/upper ridge will place our region in a northwest flow regime aloft. Disturbances embedded in the flow will move southeastward along the periphery of the ridge. One of these disturbances is expected to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. We opted to increase the chance of showers/thunderstorms from 20-30% to 30-40% for Saturday afternoon. Rain chances are lower near the coast. Given the moisture, shear, and instability parameters, we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has placed much of the region along and north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk of severe weather. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible. The other story this weekend will be the building heat thanks to the aforementioned ridge. Higher dew points on Saturday will boost heat index values up to 100 degrees while actual afternoon temperatures average in the low 90s. By Sunday, the ridge builds further bringing both good and bad news. The good news entails a much lower chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. The bad news is we will likely add another degree or two or three to your afternoon temperatures and heat index values. Practicing heat safety (drinking plenty of water, wearing light colored clothing, etc..) will be a must for those of you enjoying your holiday weekend outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 The temperature outlook for Memorial Day and Tuesday is very similar to Sunday with highs averaging in the low/mid 90s and heat index values approaching 100 degrees. There is a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms north of I-10 on Monday due to an approaching frontal boundary. The front brings a better chance of showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday (~30-40%). Once again, shear and instability parameters will be sufficient for a few strong thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected in the front`s wake. The early outlook for next Wednesday and Thursday features highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with afternoon dew points falling into the 50s and 60s (lower humidity). The drier air would allow for cooler nights, with inland overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s, low 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 TAFs start out VFR early this morning. Within a couple hours of sunrise this morning, expect another round of LIFR in fog/low clouds at DHN and TLH. A brief period of MVFR vsbys in fog is possible at DHN, while fog may develop invof ECP. Once the fog/ low clouds lift by 12-14Z, expect VFR. Attention then turns to a complex of thunderstorms expected to move southeast into the region. Highest confidence in impacts is at ABY, DHN, and VLD, where TSRA is depicted in TEMPO groups late this aftn/evening. Less confidence in TSRA at ECP and TLH, with VCTS and a TEMPO for TSRA, respectively. Winds generally Southwest around 5 to 10 kts today, with the exception of higher gusts in TSRA, which will be refined in subsequent TAFs if needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Light winds and low seas will continue through the holiday weekend. The lone exception will be if Saturday`s thunderstorms can make it far enough south to impact winds and seas over the Gulf. Therefore, locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out near and within thunderstorms on Saturday. West to southwest winds may increase somewhat ahead of an approaching frontal boundary on Monday and Tuesday. The front will also bring a chance of a few showers/thunderstorms. Quiet weather, light winds, and low seas should prevail in the front`s wake on Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 707 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Breezy southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will likely lead to high dispersions across the area both Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region Saturday afternoon with gusty winds, lightning, and small hail possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee river basins continue to remain in minor flood as they drain from last weeks storms. Some points along the Ochlockonee could fall below flood stage this morning. With the Withlacoochee slowly draining into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor flooding on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall, outside of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood in the next week, no other river basins are expected to reach flood stage this week. Widespread rainfall totals over the next 7 days will generally remain around 0.5 inches or less, with portions of SE Alabama potentially reaching 1 inch of QPF in the next week. This amount of rainfall is hydrologically insignificant, and will not lead to additional riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 72 92 71 / 30 20 0 0 Panama City 87 74 87 75 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 91 72 92 72 / 30 20 0 0 Albany 90 71 92 71 / 40 10 10 0 Valdosta 92 72 94 71 / 40 30 10 0 Cross City 90 71 92 70 / 10 20 10 0 Apalachicola 86 75 85 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HGX SHORT TERM...HGX LONG TERM....HGX AVIATION...LF MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Bunker