885
FXUS62 KTAE 040717
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A little bit more mid-level ridging is expected today. However, this
does put our area in the dreaded "northwest flow" regime, and
wouldn`t you know it, another shortwave will try to impact our area
into tonight. Before the shortwave arrives, sea breeze thunderstorms
will get going again late this morning closer to the coast, then
gradually move inland during the afternoon. There may be a little
enhancement from from any outflow boundary coming from the decaying
MCS over Mississippi this morning. The environment looks potentially
a little more potent than recent days. DCAPE is around 800-1000 J/kg
on various model forecast soundings, and there`s about 25-30 kt of
deep layer shear. Thus, can`t rule out a couple strong to severe
storms this afternoon with the primary hazards being strong gusty
winds, some hail, and frequent lightning. Highs this afternoon will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight`s forecast is a bit tricky. The afternoon pop-up storms will
be on the downward swing. But, given the shortwave embedded within
the northwest flow, there could be an MCS ongoing across the lower
Mississippi Valley late in the afternoon. As the shortwave moves
east to southeast, this MCS will likely make an attempt at
approaching our area late this evening or overnight, possibly
decaying or possibly staying together. If it does manage to maintain
itself, then wouldn`t rule out a few strong to severe storms again
tonight, mainly in the western areas. However, much of the guidance
did not even paint PoPs in the forecast for tonight. Hi-res guidance
has struggled immensely with placement and strength of MCSs over the
last several days. Thus, the forecast for tonight is a low-
confidence forecast based solely on pattern recognition and some hi-
res guidance. Have introduced 20-30% rain chances across southeast
AL and the FL Panhandle late tonight. Wouldn`t be surprised if this
changes one way or the other, but as mentioned, confidence is low.
Regardless, some patchy fog is possible tonight with lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Fairly zonal flow aloft Wednesday while the western extent of the
western Atlantic surface high remains through much of the
southeast US keeping onshore south to southwest winds going.
Seabreeze activity appears to favor our eastern and southeastern
counties in the afternoon with rain chances of 50-60%. Looking
upstream there will be a shortwave trough advancing into Alabama
Wednesday night then into our area Thursday. This trough will be
supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves by
then northwesterly flow sets up heading into Thursday night. Given
the available moisture and mid level support with the incoming
trough, have increased rain chances Thursday to 50-70% with
highest confidence north of I10. Widespread low 90s for highs
expected for Wednesday but did lower highs Thursday based on
recent guidance and expected storms/cloud cover through our
Alabama/Georgia counties west of I75 and north of I10 where upper
80s will reside and low 90s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will allow a cold front to sweep through
the CWA Friday. Dry air behind the frontal passage will
temporarily squash rain chances to the Gulf waters and southeast
Big Bend Saturday. Our region will remain in northwest flow into
early next week situated between ridging to the west and troughing
to our northeast. Weak impulses in northwest flow may allow
isolated storms to develop Sunday and another front to make a run
towards the southeast US Monday, though confidence is low at this
stage. During this period there may be a few upper 90s recorded
for highs (Friday ahead of the front in our Florida counties and
Sunday/Monday in the Florida Big Bend).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours.
Some low stratus and/or patchy fog may develop near DHN, ECP, and
ABY, which could lead to IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys. Have
included this possibility in a TEMPO. Scattered TSRA will develop
in the afternoon, starting near ECP/TLH, then spreading inland.
By 01z, most TSRA will be out of the area. Generally light south
to southwest winds expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Weak ridging will keep onshore flow going with favorable boating
conditions. A weak cold front will then drop into the coastal
waters late this week clocking winds first to the west Thursday
then northwesterly into Saturday. This will also be the time
frame of better thunderstorm chances through the Gulf waters as
well. Winds will then clock back around to onshore the latter half
of the weekend. Wave heights through the period will generally be
two feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Light southeasterly winds this morning will become southwesterly
this afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland. This combined
with mixing heights around 4,500-6,500 feet will result in good
dispersions today. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible
today, starting in the Florida zones in the late morning and early
afternoon, then moving inland during the afternoon and early
evening. Some storms could contain gusty winds and frequent
lightning. A similar pattern is expected Wednesday, but
dispersions may be high in south Georgia. Higher rain chances are
expected Thursday with an increase in primarily westerly winds.
The Big Bend and I-75 corridor will likely see high dispersions
before storms arrive.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several
days. The only exceptions can be locally heavy rain from strong
and/or slow-moving thunderstorms capable of isolated nuisance
flooding in low-lying, urban, or poor drainage areas. In terms of
rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but
levels continue to drop.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  71  92  71 /  50  10  50  20
Panama City   86  75  87  75 /  30  10  30  20
Dothan        89  70  91  71 /  50  20  40  30
Albany        90  71  92  71 /  50  40  40  30
Valdosta      91  71  93  71 /  50  40  50  20
Cross City    91  70  93  70 /  40  20  60  30
Apalachicola  85  76  86  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...IG3