Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
080 FXUS62 KTBW 301402 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1002 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Another hot day is expected across the area. We are expecting some increase in moisture today mainly in Southwest Florida which will give us our best chance to see some seabreeze thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 The upper level trough over eastern Canada will continue to dig into eastern seaboard today through the start of the weekend as a shortwave trough digs into the Mid Atlantic coast. At the surface, broad ridging centered over the Great Lakes will spread east across the eastern US today and Friday and into the Atlantic during the weekend. Closer to home, a weak disturbance will cross the Florida Peninsula today to the south of the upper level trough, increasing moisture slightly and allowing a bit more rain coverage than yesterday, with the highest rain chances still generally expected over southwest Florida and the interior portions of central Florida. As the trough deepens on Friday, a weak cold front will slowly push south across the Florida Peninsula, allowing the deep moisture to advance farther north, with scattered showers and storms expected across most of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain hot through Friday, approaching 100 over parts of the interior each afternoon. Temperatures will moderate slightly behind the front this weekend, with temperatures dropping down to near to slightly above normal. Drier air will also limit rain chances, although a few isolated showers or storms may still pop up each afternoon. By early next week, the surface ridge over the Atlantic will extend across northern Florida, with southeast to east low level flow allowing moisture and temperatures to creep higher again. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out of the Northwest. Scattered showers and storms will be possible for our southern terminal between 17z-00z today. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure will build back into the waters from the north today and Friday, then shift east into the Atlantic this weekend. Rain chances will increase Friday through the weekend as the front pushes south through the waters. Nocturnal easterly surges will bring winds up to near exercise caution levels Friday night and Saturday night. Otherwise, winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria outside of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 A dry airmass will hold over the area today, with relative humidity dropping to critically low levels across much of the area during the afternoon. However, 20 foot wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag conditions. Humidity increases slightly on Friday, although isolated areas may still briefly drop below 30 percent in the afternoon. High dispersion indices are expected each of the next couple of afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 95 76 94 74 / 20 10 40 10 FMY 95 74 95 73 / 50 30 60 20 GIF 96 72 94 71 / 30 10 50 10 SRQ 95 73 93 73 / 20 10 50 20 BKV 96 67 95 67 / 10 10 40 10 SPG 94 79 92 78 / 20 10 40 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce