Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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374 FXUS62 KTBW 221839 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 239 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The peninsula is currently wedged between a mid level trough the extends over the Western Atlantic and a ridge that is building across the Gulf. A surface high is also draped over the area, aiding in the suppression of moisture. The mid level ridge will continue to move over through the end of the week, further suppressing any rain chances. Memorial Day weekend is looking to be very warm with minimal rain chances. If outdoor activities are the agenda for the holiday weekend remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks inside or in the shade. Heading into next week, rain chances increase slightly as the surface high shifts out into the Atlantic and a trough aloft moves over the area. This will create a W-SW flow, which will favor inland shower activity. Unfortunately the low to mid 90s look to hang around for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR expected through the period. Flow continues to be mainly E-SE, turning onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze, then becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 E-SE winds will turn onshore this afternoon as the sea breeze develops. This will remain the trend everyday until the high pressure moves east later this week. By Friday the flow becomes more SW-W. Rain chances continue to be minimal until mid next week when some extra moisture returns. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Conditions continue to be hot and dry throughout the area with minimal rain chances. RH values do remain above critical values with winds 15 mph or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 91 76 91 / 0 10 0 10 FMY 73 93 76 93 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 70 94 73 95 / 0 10 0 10 SRQ 74 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 66 94 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 78 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis