093
FXUS62 KTBW 241844
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
244 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Hot, muggy, and mostly dry will be the story for the holiday
weekend and into early next week. Strong ridging across the
Eastern U.S. is leading to above normal temperatures and continued
dry conditions for the Sunshine State. As a shortwave approaches
the region, moisture will begin to increase this afternoon. This
will lead to relative humidity values around 40 percent and feels
like temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. A westerly sea
breeze this afternoon will help to make the warm temperatures more
bearable. Westerly flow on Saturday along with PWATs over 1.5
inches and shortwave energy could lead to a few scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the interior.

The warming trend will continue through the weekend and into next
week with temperatures approaching record territory. Widespread high
temperatures in the middle 90s are expected, with locations across
interior Florida reaching into the upper 90s. A few spots may even
approach the 100 degree mark this holiday weekend. A frontal
boundary will approach the area on Tuesday bringing slightly
increasing chances of rainfall on Tuesday afternoon. The better
chances will remain over central Florida with around 40 percent
chance of storms. This front will bring little relief from the heat
with highs in the lower to middle 90s expected the rest of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Winds turning onshore this afternoon and increasing slightly,
remaining between 10-15 kts with a couple of higher gusts possible.
Light and variable winds overnight with westerly winds expected
Saturday morning through the end of the period. VFR conditions
expected with no other concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Southeasterly winds this morning will turn onshore this afternoon
near the coast. Winds shift to the west for the weekend as the ridge
axis shifts south. With high pressure dominating the weather
pattern, dry conditions are expected into early next week. A weak
cold front will push into the area Tuesday, with a few showers and
storms possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Above average temperatures continue through the period. A few inland
locations could see RH values approach critical thresholds today,
otherwise increasing moisture will keep values in the 40-50 percent
range this weekend and upcoming week. A few storms are possible
inland for Saturday later afternoon, otherwise dry through Monday
with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  76  93  75  92 /  10  20   0  10
GIF  73  96  72  97 /  10  30   0  10
SRQ  76  91  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  70  92  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
SPG  80  89  79  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley