227
FXUS62 KTBW 030841
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
441 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...


.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A few stubborn showers remain several miles offshore in the
southern waters, otherwise, just another warm and humid morning in
paradise. Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure to remain just northeast
of the area today and Tuesday keeping east to southeast flow in
place. This set up will allow moisture to increase area-wide,
which supporting showers and thunderstorms each afternoon along
the sea breeze collisions. The highest chances will be for areas
along the west coast, mostly south of the I-4 corridor. Cloud
coverage today should help temperatures to stay in the low 90s,
which would make it the "coolest day" on the forecast. That might
not be the case on Tuesday, as pockets of drier air may limit
convection and highs to climb back up into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

By mid week, an upper level disturbance begins to approach the
region pushing the aforementioned ridge south. As a result, winds
become westerly supporting convection over the interior and east of
the CWA. Then, model guidance bring another boundary on Saturday,
but there is not great agreement at this time. The one parameter
that they seem to all agree on is the afternoon highs remaining in
the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, very muggy conditions are
possible during the second half of the week as dewpoints stay in
the 70s...not very comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through at least midday, though
intermittent MVFR ceilings are possible across southern terminals
tonight. Rain chances increase in the afternoon as moisture
increase and the sea breeze supports convection. Most of the
activity should move offshore after 00Z but some lingering storms
are possible through about 02Z. East to southeasterly winds
prevail before shifting from the west in the afternoon at
TPA/PIE/SRQ. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible near storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Ridge of high pressure should remain north of the area allowing
moisture to increase across the area over the next few days.
Easterly winds prevail through mid week becoming onshore behind
the afternoon sea breeze. As a result, showers and storms should
develop over the land each afternoon/evening, drifting into the
Gulf each day mainly in the late evening and early overnight
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure begins to weaken today allowing moisture to increase
across fire districts. Then, a weak disturbance attempts to move
over the area by mid week. This should allow rain chances to increase
over next few days. East to southeasterly winds with an afternoon
onshore shift should prevail each day. As a result, no fire weather
concerns are anticipated at this time. Drier conditions return into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  95  77 /  60  60  50  30
FMY  92  73  94  75 /  70  60  60  40
GIF  92  71  95  73 /  60  30  50  10
SRQ  92  73  95  75 /  60  60  50  40
BKV  92  67  96  69 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  91  78  93  80 /  60  60  50  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close